How might China test the new Joe Biden administration?
- The Trump team could meddle in several hot spots before Biden is inaugurated on January 20, including Taiwan and the South China Sea
- Beijing ‘will be watching closely to see if Biden organises the world against China’, says a former US State Department official
As the Biden administration takes the reins in Washington, the stakes have never been higher for the US relationship with China and the rest of Asia. In the second part of a post-US-election series, Washington correspondent Mark Magnier explores how Beijing may test the new US leader and what likely responses might result.
As the likelihood of a US-China reset increases despite the distracting drama over President Donald Trump’s White House departure, former intelligence officials and foreign policy analysts are gaming how Beijing could test the mettle of the incoming Biden administration for weakness and opportunity.
Most expect Beijing to initially take it slow in line with its past approach toward presidential transitions and to avoid jinxing a potential course correction after four brutal years of trade wars, name-calling and recriminations.
“Beijing may try a combination of hard and soft probing as it assesses the incoming administration,” said Jing Sun, associate professor at the University of Denver. “Contacts will be under the surface and incremental due to Beijing being traumatised by the Trump administration.”
Fuelling Beijing’s reluctance to test Washington in dramatic fashion is a belief that it is not in a rush, that American power is declining and that it has met many immediate objectives in the South China Sea. And on other core issues, it has tightened its grip over Hong Kong, while any precipitous move against Taiwan is probably premature, analysts said.
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US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’
An exception: if a spiteful Trump administration pulls something in its final weeks that Beijing can’t ignore.