Why China’s hopes for a reset in relations with US may be in vain
- Overtures to the incoming Biden administration are unlikely to be enough to overcome the growing distrust on both sides
- Some diplomatic observations believe concrete measures – such as reopening consulates – will be needed
China’s overtures towards the incoming Biden administration are unlikely to make much difference without concrete gestures such as reopening diplomatic missions or the removal of visa restrictions, diplomatic observers have warned.
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi has repeatedly called for both sides to work together to rebuild trust and said the two sides can work together in areas such as fighting Covid-19, the economy and tackling climate changes.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was one of the last world leaders to congratulate Joe Biden on winning the November 3 election, issuing a statement in which he said he hoped the two countries would manage their differences nearly three weeks after results were called by major media outlets.
The two sides have also continued to impose sanctions on each other, with the US targeting 14 vice-chairmen of the Chinese legislature over the Hong Kong national security law this week and Beijing revoking visa-free travel to Hong Kong and Macau for American diplomatic passport holders.
Tang Xiaoyang, deputy director in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said Biden will not make resetting relations a priority.
“Domestic epidemic prevention, economic revival and social conflicts are his priorities,” he said. “In terms of Sino-US relations, Biden’s team will first stop the sharp deterioration of relations between the two countries … But there won’t be noticeable changes in sensitive areas such as politics and economy.”
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Zhao Minghao, senior fellow at the Centre for American Studies, Fudan University, said acts such as reopening the Houston and Chengdu consulates would be crucial in generating good will.
“In order to create a good vibe for China-US negotiations, the two sides may take certain remedial measures simultaneously, such as restoring the consulates of the two countries, easing restrictions on personnel visas as well as stopping suppressing each other‘s journalists, Zhao said.
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Li Cheng from the Brookings Institute, said the Chinese leaders fear that China will become an area of agreement between Republicans and Democrats.
Li said Beijing believes China’s economic recovery and growing international clout give it leverage in the relations with the US, but he warned that Beijing is not giving US concerns about China’s economic and tech practices sufficient recognition.
Li also warned that Beijing may fail to understand Biden’s priorities and political constraints, saying: “Without an accurate understanding of the US or without a sense of empathy, Beijing will not be able to develop a constructive relationship that it claims to seek.”
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Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, said it made “perfect sense” for China to ask for a reset with Biden, given how badly relations had deteriorated under Donald Trump.
“It has nothing to lose by asking for it,” he said. “At best, China can hope to see a kind of return to the Obama years, which worked well for Beijing. At worst, it would leave the Biden administration looking unwilling to respond to a Chinese offer to ease tension and work together.”
But even if Biden sought to work with China on climate change or pandemic control, the two would have substantial differences since China’s efforts to “make the world safe for authoritarianism” was incompatible with US policy to make the world safe for democracies, Tsang said.
Last Saturday, Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the US, told a conference organised by the Institute for China-America Studies that Beijing was “ready to look” at the relationship if the US government was ready to reverse course, including issues such as the closed consulates and the expulsion of foreign journalists.
“In order to put the relations on the right track, to have real improvements in relations, both sides have to proceed with goodwill and good faith,” he said.
“I don’t think that China should just do something to please anybody here … so it’s kind of good faith for good faith, goodwill for goodwill.”
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But Tsang said that public opinion in the US had toughened against China across the board, as a result of the Chinese government’s increasingly aggressive approach in recent years.
“A Biden administration will be different from the Trump administration in how it approaches China, but it will not just brush aside all the big issues dividing the two sides,” he said.
Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said that Beijing believes that the problems have been created by the US side, assuming that a new administration would see a policy correction. But this ignored China’s own responsibilities for the downturn of relations, Sun said, adding that it would be difficult to avoid further deterioration.
“If China indeed wants to see improvement, it is more important to take actions to show its sincerity instead of waiting for Biden to ‘correct’ and reach out with an olive branch. Some small actions could go a long way,” she said. “A reset suggests going back to a previous state, while in reality, the clock cannot be turned back.”
