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Supporters of US President Donald Trump protest in front of the US Capitol building in Washington on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

What could Biden’s divided United States mean for China?

  • The president-elect could suffer a backlash at home if he veers too far from the ‘America first’ policies popular among Trump supporters, analyst says
  • While China could feel more confident on the global stage, it may not mean closer bonds with other countries, according to observers

Beijing can expect American social divisions to play into the next US administration’s policies on China, diplomatic observers said as Chinese state media kept up its portrayal of the United States as “messed up” and “torn apart” society.

The rifts were highlighted on Xiakedao, a prominent social media account run by staff from the overseas edition of People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece.

“The riot on Capitol Hill reveals a divided American society and endless political polarisation,” Diao Daming, an associate professor in international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, was quoted as saying.

“The biggest problem the next administration will face is how to respond to a torn America.”

China mocks US ‘double standards’ over Capitol chaos vs Hong Kong

The assessments came in the aftermath of Wednesday’s storming of the Capitol building by supporters of US President Donald Trump, part of an effort to block the certification of Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s presidential election win.

The siege led to five deaths among Trump’s supporters, triggered resignations from Trump’s cabinet and prompted renewed calls for impeachment ahead of Biden’s inauguration on January 20.
On Thursday, after US Congress officially ratified the results of the Electoral College vote, Trump offered his most explicit acknowledgement of defeat and pledged to work with Biden’s transition team.

Asked to respond to the US congressional confirmation, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying would say only that China and the US had maintained communication at various levels.

03:23

China mocks the US as Beijing compares chaos at Capitol with Hong Kong protests

China mocks the US as Beijing compares chaos at Capitol with Hong Kong protests

But Chinese observers said the next US administration would have to grapple with the country’s divisions, which could ripple out into relations with China.

Shen Dingli, a US affairs expert at Fudan University, said rifts could widen in US society if Biden veered away from Trump’s “America first” rhetoric towards a more pro-globalisation position, a shift that could benefit China and therefore backfire domestically.

“What we see on the US Capitol Hill does not reflect only Trump’s legacy, it is telling of only one of the many polarisation in different aspects in America, be it race, poverty gap, and many others,” Shen said.

“But what we know is, Democrats are pro-globalisation, and are expected to act differently from Trump’s protectionist and bilateral approaches.

“But globalisation has benefited China’s economic development, and it will continue to benefit China. This could also mean that the gap between rich and poor in the US cannot be narrowed.”

China one of many gripes for Trump supporters in Capitol siege

He said that unlike China the US did not have the resources to invest in international alliances.

“Look at the US’ situation with coronavirus and their economy right now. Does it have spare money to invest in a multilateral playing field?” he said.

“China will surely be better than the US if the Democrats try to contain China by being a more globalised player.”

Ren Xiao, director of the Centre for Chinese Foreign Policy at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said such social divides would make China more confident on the global stage.

“Polarisation in American politics is the most imminent issue for the US right now and the results of these problems are expected to be lasting. After Biden is inaugurated, he will need to put a lot of effort in dealing with domestic affairs,” Ren said.

03:12

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: ‘We’ll show what America is made of’

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: ‘We’ll show what America is made of’

Even before the storming of Capitol Hill, Chinese observers cautioned that Biden’s approach could be affected by American social divisions.

On December 23, Shi Yinhong, an adviser to China’s State Council, the country’s cabinet, said that in order to govern a divided America “Biden would have to, to a great extent, give way to or factor in Trump’s voter base, the white grass roots”.

Shi added that amid the divisions, there was bilateral support for bills sanctioning China, indicating that Biden was unlikely to retreat from that ground.

China-US relations: Beijing says ‘new window of hope’ is opening as it offers Biden administration an olive branch

But Liu Weidong, a US affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that whatever the social divisions, the unrest was unlikely to advance China’s position in the world.

“I do not think this incident will lead to disappointment in the US system and [for countries] ultimately feel closer to China,” Liu said.

“The US has gained ... support through a series of other factors ... such as its position against dictatorship, its history of providing public goods for countries, its role in international organisations in the past ... its soft power.

“This respect has not been completely ruined under Trump, and can be fixed if Biden is willing to do so.

“The mockery over what happened at Capitol Hill will be over, Trump is out of the picture soon anyway, and it is not the Biden government’s fault.”

He said other countries would take time to compare the Biden-led US and China, and “see which one is more reliable for them”.

Additional reporting by Jun Mai and Kristin Huang

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Biden’s China policy to be shaped by ‘torn’ America, observers say
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