“Our survey showed that Europeans’ attitudes towards the United States have undergone a massive change. Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade, and that Europeans cannot rely on the US to defend them,” the report said.

The survey, “The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America”, was conducted in November and December last year – during the aftermath of the US presidential election which replaced Donald Trump with Biden.

At the same time, EU and Chinese leaders were in the final stages of sealing their Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), despite calls from president-elect Biden for a slowdown. There were also accusations from critics that the deal compromised European values in the face of human rights challenges from the West on China’s handling of Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

The big geopolitical question is whether Biden’s policies will change the dynamics in China-US relations, as well as the traditional transatlantic alliance between Washington and Brussels, both of which deteriorated under Trump.

Deal or no deal? What next for China-EU investment pact and why it may fail

“Troubled by doubts about America and influenced by Trump’s focus on narrowly defined national interests, European voters have started to think differently about the nature of the transatlantic alliance,” the report said.

“ECFR’s poll shows that, in today’s Europe, there is no dream of a return to a bipolar world in which the West would face off against China and its allies as it once did against the Soviet Union.”

When asked what they would want their country to do if the US was involved in a disagreement, a majority of respondents from all 11 countries – Denmark, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden – preferred their country to stay neutral.

Beijing dropped the ball after Trump’s US left global stage, analysts say

The two countries with the most respondents in favour of siding with the US – Denmark and Poland – still had a majority who wanted their country to stay neutral in any conflict. Overall, neutrality was preferred by more than 60 per cent across all countries.

The proportion who wanted their country to side with China remained at or below 10 per cent.

“This may reflect the fact that, although both Europeans and Americans are toughening up their approaches to China, their long-term goals are somewhat different. While Americans want to do so to decouple from and contain China, Europeans [above all, Germans] still hope to bring China back into the rules-based system,” the report said.

“It is not that Europeans are pro-China. But Europeans appear keen to forge their own path rather than fall into line behind America’s China policy.”

03:23

China mocks the US as Beijing compares chaos at Capitol with Hong Kong protests

China mocks the US as Beijing compares chaos at Capitol with Hong Kong protests

In another policy paper on the CAI released by the Paris-based Institut Montaigne on Wednesday, long-time China-EU relations watcher François Godement concluded that the EU, while trying to project “strategic autonomy” in deciding its own future with China, must be aware of the consequences of “going alone”.

“Europe’s nod to an agreement in the very short time frame between two US administrations, rather than projecting “strategic autonomy”, is likely to be interpreted by China as a sign of Europe’s flexibility,” Godement, a senior adviser for Asia at the Paris think tank and an external consultant for the French foreign ministry, said in the report.

“[The] European Union must use the other window of opportunity offered by the start of a new US administration, to find common interests again, and to act jointly on values. Going it alone by overestimating the present potential for “strategic autonomy” risks disaster over interests, and irrelevance over values.”

China-EU relations face uncertain future despite investment deal

Godement concluded that the CAI has been “oversold and underpowered”. He also said the absence of a “coordinated front among China’s leading trade and investment partners” meant “the CAI is stacked up against immense odds”.

The CAI was hailed as a landmark deal by leaders from both sides when it was signed, under the leadership of Germany and France, with Beijing on December 30 after seven years of negotiations.

But analysts remain concerned that Beijing is unable to live up to its commitments on issues that Brussels insisted were included in the deal. These centre on international standards on forced labour, collective bargaining and the right to freely form trade unions.

Smaller EU countries fear losing out over China investment deal

Godement has further concerns over the CAI’s uncertainties on investment protection – an aspect that EU and Chinese officials have two years to resolve. He said the EU had maintained leverage by preserving its capacity to suspend concessions and take other unilateral defensive actions on trade and investment.

“But of course, so has China. That‘s the downside. [Another leverage is that] The EU says it is now ready to coordinate with the US. And of course, joint action would be much more efficient, in getting the implementation of agreement, but that’s not within the agreement.

These, again, are political conditions that are outside the agreement per se,” Godement told the South China Morning Post.

The EU expects the CAI to be ratified in two years, after it is approved by the European Council and voted on in the European Parliament, but Godement is not so sure. “I think ratification still runs a very great risk inside the EU parliament and perhaps because some of the member states’ governments will not really have their hearts in it.”