Would scaled back US military role in Asia-Pacific open door to China? Not everyone is convinced
- A report by the Rand Corporation think tank sets out what a ‘realist’ US foreign policy would look like
- ‘Advocates of restraint’ are confident that neighbouring countries can still limit China’s power, the authors conclude
Supporters of a scaled-back US military role believe China is unlikely to be “inalterably aggressive or impossible to deter” despite its growing power, an analysis by a US think tank has concluded.
The Rand Corporation report published last month examines what changes would happen if the strategy favoured by these “advocates of restraint” was adopted.
“These realist thinkers assess that Russia and Iran are relatively weak states that will be unable to dominate their regions,” the report said.
“Although advocates of restraint believe that China is more capable, they remain more optimistic about the ability of local powers to limit China’s domination of East Asia.
“Moreover, advocates of restraint anticipate that China will be ambitious as it continues to rise, but not inalterably aggressive or impossible to deter.”
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China’s navy conducts live-fire military drills in the East China Sea
The authors said supporters of this approach believed that only a few developments could threaten US national security and they favoured fewer military interventions abroad, wanted to reduce the numbers of troops overseas and reform or abandon some of America’s security commitments.