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Next week’s meeting will he held in Anchorage, roughly midway between Washington and Beijing. Photo: Shutterstock

China-US relations: why expectations are low for next week’s Alaska summit

  • Chinese observers say Thursday’s meeting between Antony Blinken and Yang Jiechi is unlikely to overcome the clear divisions between the two sides
  • Washington has rebuffed China’s description of the meeting as a strategic dialogue and one analyst warned Beijing to beware of ‘nets above and snares below’
Diplomacy

The upcoming talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Alaska are unlikely to lead to a major diplomatic breakthrough, Chinese observers say.

While Thursday’s meeting may offer a starting point for future talks, the first face-to-face meeting between senior officials from the two sides since Joe Biden took office, is not expected to produce any substantive solutions to the tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The divide was already clear when Blinken last week rejected the Chinese foreign ministry’s characterisation of the meeting as a “strategic dialogue” and said there was “no intent at this point for a series of follow-on engagements”.

Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University, said the US was signalling that relations would not return to the way they were under former US presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama, even if Beijing wants to get things “back on track”.

“A strategic dialogue is yesterday’s story,” he said. “But it is already very difficult for the two sides to have this meeting just 50 days after Biden came into office … There is some goodwill from the US side in inviting the Chinese officials over to the US and to hold the meeting in Alaska, a halfway point.”

China should brace for ‘difficult’ issues during Alaska meeting, US says

On Friday the US President held a virtual summit with the leaders of India, Japan and Australia – the so-called Quad – where the discussions included Beijing’s “aggression” and “coercion”.

Blinken and US defence secretary Lloyd Austin will also travel to Tokyo and Seoul early next week to meet their Japanese and South Korean counterparts.

Pang said the timing reflected skilled diplomacy from Washington that almost seemed to lay out “nets above and snares below” for China, adding that the US had already been “very frank” that the bilateral relationship would involve confrontation and competition as well as cooperation.

“Even if they cannot talk things through in this meeting, this is a starting point because no matter what, the two heads of state will have to meet at some point,” he said. “The two sides have not actually begun negotiations. This is a pre-negotiation, so we should not have certain expectations.”

The meeting between Yang Yiechi and Antony Blinken will be the first face-to-face contact between senior officials since Joe Biden took office. Photo: AFP and Xinhua

US State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters last week that the US planned to engage Beijing “from a position of strength”, that would involve Washington calling US allies in the Indo-Pacific, re-engaging with multilateral institutions and a fresh emphasis on US values.

“It’s no accident that we’ve taken these steps before we engage Beijing at a more senior level,” he said.

Ren Xiao, director of the Centre for Chinese Foreign Policy at Fudan University, said it was still important for the two sides to engage in direct communication to “prevent misunderstandings and overcome misperceptions”.

“I don’t think it’s likely that they can resolve specific issues, but it’s about making the US see China and China’s intentions correctly,” he said. “There are many issues that will need to be further discussed in various meetings, as they involve many different departments, and they will need to gradually be carried out over the next four years.”

China hopes to find common ground with US ahead of Alaska talks

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said last week that it was important that the meeting was taking place on US soil. She said the US side would raise concerns about Taiwan, Hong Kong, the lack of transparency over Covid-19 and human rights abuses, as well as discussing how the two countries could work together.

A Beijing-based scholar, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to overseas media, said that neither side had high expectations for the Anchorage meeting – which will also be attended by Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan – since their respective positions were clear.

“The ideal scenario for the Chinese side is for a joint statement afterwards that expresses positive signals, showing that there will be further talks between the two sides,” the academic said.

“But there may not be such a statement, as the US has clearly stated that if China does not make concessions, then there will not be any more talks. But on issues relating to Hong Kong and Xinjiang, there will basically be no concessions from the Chinese side.”

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Top US and China envoys to meet in Alaska, White House confirms

Top US and China envoys to meet in Alaska, White House confirms

Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Centre for China and Globalisation think tank, said that both Beijing and Washington understood that their relationship encompassed both competition and cooperation.

“It’s certainly better than not meeting, that’s for sure,” he said. “One face-to-face meeting is worth a thousand other forms of communication. I’m sure this is not the first, and will continue.”

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