Spratly Islands: are Chinese boats baiting fish, or the Philippines?
- Reports of more than 200 vessels at the disputed Whitsun Reef have added to complaints that Beijing is militarising the South China Sea
- As Manila calls the presence a maritime militia and Beijing maintains they are sheltering fishers, the Philippines weighs how to respond
Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said he suspected the vessels were not only fishing boats, and they represented a challenge to Manila.
“It’s by now an open secret that the Chinese authorities are in the midst of enhancing their maritime militia, especially its ability to fish and fight,” Koh said. “The fishers are expected, even when engaged in fishery production work, to perform their patriotic duty as maritime militiamen.
“There’s a possibility that this boat swarm could be designed to test Philippine resolve and action, and by extension, those of the Americans. Will the Filipinos take action, and what consequences will there be?”
China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan all have claims over the entire Union Banks, which includes Whitsun Reef.
“Having a hypothetical outpost on Whitsun Reef would appear advantageous in terms of enhancing physical control,” Koh said, noting the considerable distance between Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef, the two largest artificial and militarised islands China has built in the Spratly chain.
“An additional outpost between them – about halfway between – could be useful. If it were located closer than Mischief Reef is to the energy-rich Reed Bank, a resource-based motive would have been clearer.”
But Hu Bo, director of Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, which monitors fishing activities in the region, said the total of “more than 200” probably included repeated counts, because there were not that many boats on March 7 or the following days, and some boats entered and exited the area several times over these days.
“Also, I don’t see the purpose of sending hundreds of militia boats there,” Hu said, adding that this incident seemed similar to one that flared up two years ago and would probably fizzle out like that one did.
02:19
Philippine President Duterte admits being at a loss getting Beijing to honour South China Sea ruling
The United States on Tuesday said it was backing the Philippines in its latest maritime feud with Beijing, and accused China of using “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations, which undermines peace and security in the region”.
Chen Xiangmiao, an associate researcher with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Manila would this time probably come under domestic pressure to take a much harder line with Beijing over the South China Sea.
South China Sea: the dispute that could start a military conflict
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who is prevented by the constitution from seeking re-election next year, has largely avoided confronting China, but may need to alter that stance to help his preferred successor win an election against opponents advocating a more nationalistic line.
“I think it is quite obvious that there are complex considerations in Philippine domestic politics about this issue, one of which is to set the political agenda for Duterte and set obstacles to Sino-Philippine relations,” Chen said. “It is in the interests of some factions within the Philippines as well as their ally the United States.”
Additional reporting by Liu Zhen
