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How Japan could find itself dragged into a conflict between US and China over Taiwan
- If the US decided to come to the island’s defence, its airbases on Japan could come under attack by the People’s Liberation Army
- Last week a US admiral warned members of Congress that a mainland Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan may be closer than people think
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Japan may find itself in the firing line if mainland China attacks Taiwan because of the multiple US bases on its soil, analysts have said.
Last week, Japanese and US defence chiefs agreed to cooperate closely if Beijing decides to attack the island, which it regards as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland.
The US is required by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but it has not made clear whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack, something that would probably lead to a much broader conflict with Beijing.
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Last week Admiral John Aquilino, Joe Biden’s nominee to lead America’s Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress that Beijing will have the ability to invade Taiwan sooner than current predictions would suggest.
“If Beijing decides to attack Taiwan, PLA generals will have a strong incentive to launch extensive missile strikes on US military bases in Okinawa and Japan, as these are the most powerful forces that could intervene and inflict heavy losses on PLA forces,” said Timothy Heath, a senior security expert from US think tank Rand.
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