Could a chill in China’s ties with the West put its Polar Silk Road plans on ice?

In the three years since China first aired its vision for a “Polar Silk Road” trade route, it has made some headway in expanding its presence in the Arctic.

Chinese entities have opened up new freight routes and conducted scientific expeditions in the region. And late last year, the country also announced plans to launch a satellite by 2022 to track shipping routes and monitor changes in sea ice.

The vision is part of Beijing’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative to expand Chinese influence through investment and infrastructure across the world, and is officially part of the national development blueprint for the next five years.

But observers say China’s Arctic ambitions could be hemmed in by its deteriorating relations with the West, no matter how much it can count on Russia’s support.