US-China tensions raise risk of nuclear reaction to cyberattacks: report
- A collaboration between Chinese and American think tanks has found both sides could overreact to perceived cyberthreats
- Study warns the scale of the problem is underestimated with no effective mechanism to deal with the risks
A joint study by think tanks from the United States and China warns that cyberattacks on nuclear systems could trigger conflict, with both sides underestimating the risk.
The three-year study by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) found the major powers not only lacked an effective mechanism to deal with the risk of an attack on nuclear systems escalating into conflict, they also did not have a full awareness of the threat.
The report, “China-US Cyber-Nuclear C3 Stability”, said China and the US had enhanced their cyber capability and given it a bigger role in their overall security postures, as the use of cyber operations for intelligence collection was tempting for various reasons.
“They are relatively inexpensive, nonlethal, often effective, and not clearly illegal. Because they seem – and often are – less destructive, more temporary in their effects, and generally less provocative than the use of human spies and certainly kinetic weapons, cyber operations pose a lower risk of escalation,” it said.
Even if the intention of the cyber espionage on a country’s nuclear command and control system was defensive, seeking to gain warning of an attack, it was likely the target would react with deep alarm and even use its nuclear weapons before they were compromised, the report said.
Lu Chuanying, director of the International Cyberspace Governance Centre at SIIS and a co-author of the report, said the major nuclear states did not currently have a strong motivation to build a risk-reduction mechanism together, as they were not yet fully aware of the potential risk.
“Nuclear study is a very closed and exclusive research field, and there is basically no communication among countries. For instance, if an aeroplane crashed, the country may make a public announcement of the technical issue that lead to the accident, so that other countries can take precautions. But this is not the case in the nuclear field. Countries are very likely to fail to notice certain loopholes in their nuclear system due to lack of communications with one another, and thus feel safe,” he said.