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Leaders from the US, India, Japan and Australia take part in a Quad meeting in March. Photo: EPA-EFE

China checks if Seoul still cool on joining US-led Quad alliance

  • In a sign of Beijing’s concern about ‘Indo-Pacific Nato’, sources say officials have been asking South Korea about its intentions
  • So far Seoul has maintained a strategic ambiguity towards the grouping as it strives to avoid taking sides with either Beijing or Washington
Beijing has repeatedly asked if South Korea will join the Quad – a US-led grouping which includes Japan, Australia and India – showing China is increasingly worried about the expansion of what it sees as a move to contain its influence in the region, according to diplomatic sources.

The diplomats said Seoul had received a number of inquiries from Chinese officials about whether it intended to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. The South Korean government has consistently said it has not received an invitation to do so.

Explainer | What is the Quad, and how will it impact US-China relations under the Biden administration?

Observers do not rule out the possibility that South Korea may drop its strategic ambiguity towards the Quad and warned of a “significant challenge” to China’s security in East Asia if that were to occur.

“The US has been wooing South Korea and seeking to integrate the US’ alliances, respectively with Japan and South Korea, into a triangular alliance. If South Korea joins the Quad, chances are it will eventually lead to such a trio – in other words, a little Nato in Northeast Asia, which will certainly pose a serious challenge to China’s security,” said Qian Yong, associate professor of Zhejiang University’s Korea Institute.

Bi Yingda, a research fellow with the Institute for Korean Peninsula Studies at Shandong University, said an anti-China coalition in East Asia would put China under huge pressure and raise the risks of military conflict.

“An anti-China multilateral alliance in East Asia would heighten confrontation in the region. Subsequently, Beijing would move closer to Russia and side with North Korea over the peninsula issues. When that day comes, it could easily evolve into confrontations between two camps, in other words a cold war. In history that is usually how a war has started too,” Bi said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called the Quad grouping a Nato in the Indo-Pacific and warned it would severely undermine regional security. Beijing has also accused Washington of forming a clique to curtail China’s rise.

Officials from the Quad countries have talked about possible new members and invited other countries to discuss security and pandemic control. Seoul has so far resisted picking sides between Washington and Beijing, as it has tried to balance its alliance with the US and economic reliance on China.

Recent years have seen relations sour between China and the four Quad members. The US has ramped up its military presence in the South China Sea, challenging Beijing’s claims over much of the disputed waterway. Japan has been locked in a dispute with China over territorial claims in the East China Sea, as well as friction over the Taiwan issue. China’s ties with Australia are at their lowest in decades on a range of issues, from the pandemic to trade, human rights and accusations of espionage. Border tensions with India remain unresolved.

European nations have also intensified their presence in the Indo-Pacific region. France led military drills with the Quad nations in April, and indicated a joint plan with India and Australia to step up Quad-style cooperation in the region.

02:14

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow

“The Quad has provided the US and its allies with an ideal multinational framework to generally suppress China in the future,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor on international relations with Renmin University.

“The main expansion direction for the Quad would be from Britain and other Nato members. Given that almost no Southeast Asian countries will join the group as they are deeply alert to getting involved in China-US rivalry, they also have room to play a somewhat independent role between the two.”

Tang Xiaoyang, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University, said China would be worried that an expansion of the Quad could form a geopolitical encirclement from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. “Members of the Five Eyes - such as Britain, Canada and New Zealand - may be interested in joining,” he said.

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