Will Taiwan’s allies switch allegiance to Beijing to obtain vaccines?
- Honduras leader has indicated he may take Beijing’s advice and seek a ‘diplomatic bridge’ to secure Chinese doses
- Vaccines offer Beijing a chance to expand its diplomatic reach, including to countries that recognise Taipei, observers say
Several of Taipei’s allies had been poached before the pandemic by Beijing, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan. But the impact of Covid-19 on some of the 15 nations that still recognise the self-ruled island has made Beijing’s ability to offer vaccines a persuasive factor in determining diplomatic loyalties.
In a televised speech on Tuesday, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez said his government was willing to do whatever it took to alleviate the suffering of the pandemic, according to Reuters. Facing mounting protests, Hernandez said poorer countries desperately needed vaccines and he was willing to do as Beijing had suggested and look for a “diplomatic bridge” to obtain Chinese supplies.
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He suggested that Mexico, Chile, Argentina or El Salvador – which recognise Beijing diplomatically instead of Taipei – could help Honduras acquire Chinese vaccines, and said he had also asked Taiwan to approach the United States for vaccine assistance.
Several Latin American nations are receiving Chinese vaccines, but Honduras and Guatemala, which recognise Taipei, are not.
Observers said it appeared that Beijing had sought to expand ties with countries, including Taiwan’s allies, through its “vaccine diplomacy”.
“Despite the questionable [efficacy] of its vaccines, China has grasped the chance to expand its diplomatic reach by providing vaccines to countries, including our allies,” Lai I-chung, president of Taipei think tank Prospect Foundation, said.
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Given Beijing’s huge influence, Taiwan was fighting an uphill battle to compete with Beijing’s vaccine diplomacy, Lai said.
Li Da-jung, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, said the Taiwanese government should establish the real motive behind Honduras’ potential trade office in Beijing.
“We need to understand whether, besides seeking vaccines, Honduras wants to maintain its 80 years of ties with Taiwan,” Li said.
Pang Zhongying, an international relations professor at the Ocean University of China, said Beijing had indicated that to get its vaccines directly, Honduras would have to recognise the Beijing government as the sole legitimate government representing mainland China and Taiwan.
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“Considering its diplomatic relations with Taipei, it is very difficult for Honduras to comply,” Pang said. “[Vaccines] may be an opportunity for [mainland China] to make a breakthrough in relations with countries that have diplomatic ties with Taipei. That will squeeze Taipei’s diplomatic space further.
“Even if Honduras got Chinese vaccines indirectly, it would help bring the two sides closer.”
Xin Qiang, deputy director of the American studies centre at Fudan University, said competing with Taipei would not be Beijing’s prime motive.
“These countries may adjust policies to get vaccines,” he said. “But [if not] Beijing will still provide [indirect] assistance.”
On Wednesday, Taipei indicated it was discussing with Honduras how to get vaccines through various channels, including from like-minded countries. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou accused Beijing of trying the same approach it took with Paraguay to trade vaccines for recognition.
“[Beijing] is once again using vaccines in exchange for political and diplomatic interests with countries in urgent need of supplies, which is shameful behaviour,” she said.
Additional reporting by Rachel Zhang