Lessons for China in Washington’s wooing of Quad-curious South Korea
- Seoul has shunned the US-led coalition but a change in messaging suggests it could find room in its heart for a non-military partnership
- Meanwhile, Beijing’s diplomatic inflexibility is undermining its efforts to rally regional support against the grouping
But it looks increasingly likely that Moon may embrace the idea of partial participation, in the face of mounting pressure from Washington and a popular backlash at home against his China-friendly approach.
If Seoul does have a change of heart, it would signal a further shift of the regional balance of power in Washington’s favour.
Beijing is already aghast that the Quad has matured, in just a few months, from a vague concept into an anti-China front line endangering its global ambitions. It would be further unsettled if more countries joined the US-led encirclement of China.
For months, Chinese diplomats have warned their host countries – openly and in private – of economic repercussions if they edge closer to Washington.
China’s fears of being isolated are understandable, but it has undermined its own efforts to rally support, with a lack of diplomatic flexibility or country-specific strategies to accommodate the concerns of countries torn between economic dependence on China and their security ties with the US.