In the Balkans, China and Russia rush in where the EU loses its tread
- Tensions are resurfacing in a peninsula that has long been a geopolitical battleground
- The bloc is losing credibility, creating opportunities for rivals, observers say
Efforts to safeguard stability in the Balkans are being derailed by the stalling membership talks with North Macedonia. Over the past 16 years, the former Yugoslav republic jumped through hoops to prove itself worthy of starting negotiations, but it is in limbo again.
Along with North Macedonia, five other Balkan nations are candidates to join: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia. But with the EU stumbling from crisis to crisis, the pace of expansion has slowed since Croatia joined in 2013. That’s created an opportunity for rival forces, including Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to build their influence.
The turbulent peninsula that has long been a geopolitical battleground is again rife with tension. Territorial claims are becoming louder, ethnic divisions are deepening and some politicians are openly discussing the need to change borders. As in the rest of eastern Europe, the EU’s plan has been to bolster stability in the region by holding out the prospects of membership for countries building democratic institutions, tackling corruption and opening economies.
“The EU has lost a lot of credibility” over North Macedonia, said Valentin Inzko, an Austrian diplomat who just concluded his 12-year term as the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a post responsible for monitoring implementation of a 1995 peace agreement. “Above all, allowing a vacuum is the worst, as others will move to fill it.”