China, Russia have ‘no choice’ but to strengthen strategic and military ties in face of G7 and Nato, observer says
- Biden and Putin will meet in Geneva to discuss deteriorating relationship but expectations are low
- Moscow and Beijing could pursue a closer alliance after G7 and Nato took a tough line on both
Moscow and Beijing, both facing confrontation from the West, are likely to strengthen their alliance regardless of the outcome of a US-Russia summit, observers say.
China and Russia, meanwhile, have “no choice” but to move closer, especially after the G7 and Nato leaders took a tough line on the two countries this week, according to one observer.
Biden said before the summit that the US wanted stable and predictable relations with Russia and was “not seeking conflict”, but would “respond in a robust and meaningful way” if Moscow engaged in harmful activities.
Biden is expected to raise issues including cyberattacks, aggression towards Ukraine and arms control during the talks with Putin, but observers say they are unlikely to make much progress.
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Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said Nato and the G7 had caused more antagonism between the US and Russia with their communiques and the Geneva talks would do little to change that.
“Perhaps they will talk about measures to prevent the deterioration of arms control.”
Shi said tensions with the West could lead to a stronger alliance between Russia and China. “In the current climate, China and Russia have no choice but to strengthen their strategic, military and diplomatic cooperation,” he said.
Lu Xiang, a US affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Washington could try to ease tensions by making concessions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany – a project the US has strongly opposed.
But he added that Moscow would continue to pursue closer ties with Beijing since it affected Russian security, and there could be more engagement in the second half of the year.
However, Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said Moscow and Beijing were unlikely to be pushed closer by the G7 and Nato statements since they were “already close enough”, and that China was likely to wait to see if the condemnations were followed by action.
“If they are, that could incentivise Beijing to offer Russia a closer collaboration. It remains to be seen how Russia would respond to such an offer,” Lukin said.
“If the West demonstrates substantive steps to improve relations with Russia, Moscow could become more reserved in further strengthening strategic bonds with Beijing.”
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Lukin said the Geneva summit would not resolve tensions between Russia and the US.
“However, it might be helpful in mitigating the hostility between the two great powers whose relations are currently at the lowest point since the early 1980s, when the Soviet Union and the US were locked in a Cold War stand-off,” Lukin said.
“For example, they could agree to end a mutual diplomatic war that in recent years saw scores of American and Russian diplomats being expelled, consular missions closed, and visa issuance suspended,” he said.
“If, in Geneva, they manage to fix relatively minor issues, that might indicate they would be able to solve the bigger problems in the future.”
