Coming weeks in US-China relations ‘crucial’ for leaders’ summit chances
- Both sides have stressed the need for dialogue but any escalation in tensions over the next few months will hamper talks
- Observers say the signs have not been promising since deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit to Tianjin in July
Any escalation in tensions will overshadow the chances of a meeting, which officials are continuing to explore at a government level as both sides explore their bottom lines, while considering whether to go ahead with a higher level of engagement.
Zhang Tuosheng, a researcher from the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies, is “still hopeful” for a leadership summit but said the next two months would be critical. “There is a need to set up the atmosphere for the summit. If there are no major incidents triggered by the US side challenging China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea and Taiwan issues, it is still hopeful that the two leaders will meet.”
Officials from both sides have stressed the importance of dialogue. US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and China’s new ambassador to Washington Qin Gang both said on Thursday that communication would be key to resolving their differences.
Their meeting followed Sherman’s visit to Tianjin in late July for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his deputy Xie Feng, which analysts hoped would be a possible first step towards a Xi-Biden discussion.
Both sides agreed to keep talking. Sherman reiterated the US position while Wang warned her of Beijing’s “red lines” – including on Taiwan – and Xie presented her with two lists of demands and grievances. Among them was cancellation of the US extradition request for Huawei Technologies executive Meng Wanzhou from Canada and the removal of restrictions on visa applications.
Whether these and other items on the lists can be achieved will be an indication of the state of China-US ties, but the signs since Sherman’s visit are not promising.
The US has stepped up its activities in the South China Sea and started two “large-scale” military exercises, including one in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies. In what was seen as a countermove, the PLA last week held training drills in the South China Sea as well as joint exercises with Russia in the north-central Chinese region of Ningxia.