In uncertain times, China ‘needs new vision’ for Europe relationship

Beijing may need a different approach to reinvigorate ties with the EU as the bloc readjusts its policy, analyst says
But the country is not expected to soften its stand on moves it sees as challenging its ‘red lines’

China-EU relations

Rachel Zhangin Shanghai

Published: 3:00pm, 14 Aug 2021

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China may have to come up with a new approach to its changing relationship with Europe, analysts say, though that is not likely to include a softer stand on challenges to its “red lines”.

They expect Beijing will keep pushing for more cooperation with the European Union, despite rising tensions with the bloc over issues including the pandemic and human rights. But it may have to do more to improve ties at a time of uncertainty, as Germany, France and Hungary all head towards elections.

“The upcoming elections are pieces of a wider puzzle that is the ongoing process of the EU’s readjustment of its China policy,” said Grzegorz Stec, an analyst with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.

“Regardless of the electoral outcomes, China would need to propose to the EU a new vision of relations if it wants to reinvigorate its ties with the bloc,” he said. “Trying to maintain the status quo by insisting on labelling the EU-China relations a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ and paying selective lip service to the European strategic autonomy will not be enough.”

The relationship is facing “unprecedented” change, according to Sun Qi, an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

He said Beijing wanted to cooperate with Europe but would continue to retaliate against moves it regarded as challenging its red lines.

“China will show no hesitation in hitting back – including with economic sanctions – against EU members who follow the US to challenge Beijing’s red line over issues like Taiwan,” Sun said.

In the latest diplomatic row over the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as its own, China recalled its envoy to Lithuania on Tuesday over its decision to allow Taiwan to open a representative office in the Baltic nation under its own name. Lithuania also plans to recall its ambassador to China, a source familiar with the situation told the South China Morning Post earlier. The country has emerged as China’s most vocal critic in the EU and in May became the first to withdraw from the Beijing-led “17+1” group of Central and European countries, citing unfulfilled economic promises.

02:17

‘One China’ explained

There could be more headwinds to come, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel – a strong advocate within Europe for engaging China – about to retire and the country heading to the polls next month. Merkel was the main sponsor of the EU-China investment treaty that was put on hold in May as a result of tit-for-tat sanctions over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Beijing will also be closely watching next year’s election in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s main rival, far-right nationalist politician Marine Le Pen, could be expected to take a much tougher line on China.

Sun noted that change could also be on the way in Hungary, where a vote is also expected in April. Hungary has been China’s strongest supporter within the EU, blocking resolutions criticising Beijing over issues including the South China Sea, its belt and road infrastructure scheme, and its political crackdown in Hong Kong.

But Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s close relationship with China has become an election issue, with opposition politicians vowing to scrap two planned Chinese projects: a satellite campus for Shanghai’s Fudan University in Budapest, and a railway linking the Hungarian and Serbian capitals.

“If the opposition comes to power it will be a serious setback for Sino-Hungarian relations,” Sun said.

Stec from the Mercator Institute said the election could result in a U-turn in Hungary’s China policy.

“[It could also] end Budapest’s disruptive role in attempts to create a united European China policy,” he said.

03:36

Beijing hits back at Western sanctions against China’s alleged treatment of Uygur Muslims

Beijing is meanwhile standing firm as it comes under growing international pressure, including over its treatment of the Uygur Muslim minority in Xinjiang. In March, after the US, the EU, Britain and Canada imposed sanctions on Chinese officials for alleged human rights abuses in the region, China immediately hit back with its own punitive measures against Europe.

“China [will] need to find a way to resolve the gridlock caused by the exchange of sanctions with the EU and offer the bloc a meaningful breakthrough in market access, climate cooperation or constructively address some of Europe’s human rights concerns,” Stec said.

Zeng Jinghan, a professor of Chinese and international studies at Lancaster University, suggested it may be time for Beijing to dial down the rhetoric, particularly as Washington seeks to rally support in Europe to counter China.

He said Beijing would have to adjust its Europe policy based on what happens in the polls, but “continuing the Wolf Warrior [combative style of] diplomacy in Europe could be detrimental, especially since China has few friends worldwide with considerable international influence”. “Beijing’s future foreign policy should be more flexible,” Zeng said. “China needs to be more open-minded and placid in the face of criticism.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Beijing ‘needs new vision for EU ties’ as change looms