Why China is in no rush to endorse the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Beijing was talking to the militant group before its takeover of the Central Asian nation but doubts remain about what the group can and will do
- China is pursuing a policy of ‘constructive intervention’, a long, pragmatic game in contrast to that of the US
Diplomatic sources and foreign policy observers said Beijing was in no hurry to give recognition to a Taliban-led regime, opting instead to play a long, pragmatic game of “constructive intervention” – an idea Foreign Minister Wang Yi first floated in 2017.
The concept defines a more active role for Beijing in global hotspots while maintaining its principle of not interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries. Rather than US-style projection of force, the concept relies on China using political and economic means to gain sway.
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As the US departs Afghanistan, China has said it will not go into the war-torn country with an army.
It has promised mediation and help with reconstruction but still has qualms about how much it should trust the Taliban’s promises.
The Taliban has indicated that it wants to shed some of its religious fundamentalism and establish a moderate and sustainable regime.
It has also said it will protect the rights of women “within the bounds of sharia law”, and prevent Afghan territory from being used to harbour terrorist groups.
Yet fear is mounting for women and girls in Afghanistan after the Taliban asked them to stay at home, admitting that they were not safe in the presence of the militant group’s soldiers.
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Chinese analysts said they expected threats of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan would “persist for a long time to come” but China’s doubts about the Taliban would not prevent it from continuing its engagement with the group.
“China is not in a hurry to recognise [a Taliban-led Afghan government] and has been carefully observing developments,” said a source familiar with China’s foreign policymaking. “Meanwhile, we have maintained active communication with the Taliban.”
Another source said China would take its time and draw from its experience in handling the crisis in Myanmar.
“China will not take the lead [in recognising a Taliban-led government]. It will be similar to how China handles the junta government [in Myanmar]. Even though Beijing has good communications with the junta government and both sides have a good understanding of each other, Beijing did not take the lead to recognise the junta.”
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As part of the process, China’s ambassador to Afghanistan Wang Yu met Abdul Salam Hanafi, the deputy head of the Taliban political office in Qatar, in Kabul on Tuesday.
In addition, Beijing’s special envoy for Afghan affairs, Yue Xiaoyong, met Qatar’s deputy prime minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in Doha to discuss Afghanistan on Thursday.
China would also consider the views of the international community before giving any form of endorsement, the sources said.
The United Nations Security Council maintains a sanctions regime against the group and the World Bank has halted funding for Afghanistan following the Taliban’s takeover.
“The position that the United Nations Security Council adopts will be a key indicator to watch, even as the sanctions regime is unlikely to be easily removed for the time being,” the first source said.
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However, Chinese official media and internet users cheered the Taliban’s conquest as the “death knell for declining US hegemony”.
Some even compared the insurgent group’s sudden ascent to power to the Communist Party’s takeover in China in 1949. The Taliban deployed low-intensity, guerilla tactics, making advances through the peripheral and rural parts of the country and eventually surrounding Kabul in a similar way to Mao Zedong’s strategy of “surrounding the cities from the countryside”.
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For China’s foreign policy observers, Afghanistan’s strategic location and implications for its border security means China needs to carefully plan its policy.
They warned against the risk of promising more than it could deliver, and said Beijing should avoid repeating the mistakes of previous powers.
“Many Chinese academics have been talking about the lessons of the ‘graveyard of empires’. China should not rush into Afghanistan now, it should carefully plan its moves,” said Pang Zhongying, an international relations expert with Ocean University of China.
Ye Hailin, a specialist on South Asian affairs with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China’s primary interest in Afghanistan was economic.
“China’s intervention will be very different from the US’. We will not use a divide and rule strategy in Afghanistan, and will instead focus on reconstruction and economic development,” he said in an interview with China.com.cn.
“China is willing to provide support on this front. This is a responsibility we should take as a great nation, it is also where our national interest lies.”
