Is Taiwan about to lose another long-term ally to Beijing?

Name: Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?
Uploaded: 2021-09-11T06:00:17.000Z
Duration: 10 min 22 s
Description: Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?

Honduras, an 80-year Taiwan ally, is about to elect a president, and main opposition candidate has vowed to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing if victorious

Debt-ridden country battling coronavirus pandemic may be swayed by Beijing’s vaccine diplomacy and more, says analyst

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Xiomara Castro, presidential candidate for the opposition Libre party, addresses a rally in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, on September 5. Photo: Reuters

Lawrence Chung

Published: 2:00pm, 11 Sep 2021Updated: 9:13pm, 11 Sep 2021

As Honduras gears up to hold presidential elections in November, keeping a close eye on the outcome is Taiwan – because the result may decide whether relations between the long-time allies remain intact.

Taipei has reason to be concerned. A high-profile candidate of the main opposition party in the November 28 election, Xiomara Castro, has vowed to seek diplomatic relations with mainland China if she is elected.

Castro is married to ousted former Honduran president Manuel Zelaya, leader of her left-wing Liberty and Refoundation (Libre) party. Addressing reporters in Tegucigalpa on Sunday, she promised to “immediately open diplomatic and commercial relations with mainland China” if she won.

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Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?

Honduras is among just 15 countries that maintain formal relations with self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if needed.

Castro also pledged to seek an international audit of internal and external debt to readjust national borrowings, but did not elaborate on what steps she would take to rescue the debt-ridden Central American country, including whether she would seek help from Beijing.

Honduras’ public debt at the end of 2020 was more than US$13 billion, or 55 per cent of GDP. As much as US$8.45 billion of this was foreign debt.

If Castro wins in November, it could mean the end of 80 years of formal relations between Taipei and Tegucigalpa, observers said.