Poll points to European disconnect over ‘cold war’ with China
- Think tank says its survey shows hawkish framing by Brussels could repel more voters than it attracts among EU member states
- Results also reveal growing scepticism about Beijing and an unchanged negative perception of Moscow’s intentions
The EU might not have public support for a more hawkish attitude towards China, with a think tank poll pointing to the danger of a “disconnect” between Brussels and European public opinion.
The disconnect could undermine an effective EU response in the event of escalating tensions with China or Russia, according to a report from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) which conducted the poll.
Across the European Union, 31 per cent of the 16,000 people surveyed said the EU was probably or definitely in a cold war with China, while only 15 per cent of respondents felt the same was true of their own countries.
A total of 63 per cent said they believed a new cold war was developing between China and the United States, according to the poll results released on Wednesday.
The ECFR said its polls revealed growing scepticism about Beijing and an unchanged negative perception of Moscow’s intentions.
But it also warned that the view the EU was the institution “best placed to defend their interests and values” rather than national governments, carried the risk that Europeans could see Brussels as “insulating” them from the “troubling problems” of the modern world.
“So far, it is only European institutions rather than European publics that are ready to see the world of tomorrow as a growing system of competition between democracy and authoritarianism,” the ECFR said in the report “What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War”.
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“On its own, this gap in views of geopolitics is not necessarily a sign of the declining importance of the Western alliance,” the report said.
“But it is a signal that, should a moment of crisis come, Brussels could be accused of being an American voice in Europe rather than a European voice in the world.
“The irony of Brussels’ new hawkishness is that, in the eyes of many European leaders, a muscular EU foreign policy would allow the union to become a sovereign and independent voice in international affairs,” it said.
“Our latest survey shows that a cold war framing is likely to repel more voters than it attracts and that policymakers will need to make the case for a strong Atlantic alliance in a new way.
“To do this, they will need to focus less on ideological divisions and the need for alignment, and to concentrate on showing how a rebalanced alliance can empower and restore sovereignty to European citizens in a dangerous world.”
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Washington has identified China as the biggest security threat to the US and the world, while Brussels has said it wants to use “strategic autonomy” in its relationship with China. The European Council, made up of the EU’s 27 heads of state, will meet in October to discuss China strategy, while there are also plans to host an EU-China summit before the end of the year.
The ECFR said the survey, conducted in May and June, made clear that European citizens had been ambivalent about talk of a new cold war even before last week’s announcement of the Aukus security alliance between the US, Australia and Britain, which excludes European countries and has prompted more uncertainties over US-EU cooperation on a China strategy.
The participants in the survey were from 12 EU countries including Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.
The survey results also countered the view that Europeans regard Germany’s role as a divisive one in EU foreign policy. Instead, the poll found large numbers of the respondents trust Germany to defend their interests in a range of policy areas – from economics and security to issues of democracy and human rights. Only 16 per cent said they do not trust Germany to defend European interests at all.
