Advertisement
Advertisement
Aukus alliance
Get more with myNEWS
A personalised news feed of stories that matter to you
Learn more
A Royal Australian Navy submarine is seen during a drill with the Indian Navy in Darwin on September 5. Australia is buying a fleet of nuclear submarines as part of a new defence pact. Photo: TNS

Aukus fallout: is there a ‘small window of opportunity’ for China?

  • Diplomatic feud between US and France over submarine deal may give rise to hopes in Beijing that it can leverage the situation
  • But analysts say the differences between Washington and its allies over efforts to contain China should not be overstated
A new trilateral defence alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia has jolted two unlikely partners: America’s adversary China, and France, one of its oldest allies.
Washington and London will help Canberra build nuclear-powered submarines in the next 20 years as part of the three-way deal, which according to the White House “binds decisively Australia to the United States and Great Britain for generations”.
For Beijing, the so-called Aukus pact marks the emergence of another US-led alliance in the Indo-Pacific to contain China – on top of existing ones like the Quad security grouping between the US, Japan, Australia and India.

By sharing for the first time sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Canberra, Washington has made major gains in bringing its Indo-Pacific ally into the fold to collectively confront Beijing, a step to further tilt the balance of military power away from China, according to analysts.

US defence chief Lloyd Austin said the new partnership was “not aimed at anyone”. Photo: AFP
Although US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin sought to reassure Beijing last week that the trilateral deal was “not aimed at anyone”, China’s foreign ministry slammed it as “extremely irresponsible” and said it would sabotage regional stability and fuel the arms race.

It was also a big deal for Paris, but for different reasons.

Humiliated over the loss of a multibillion-dollar contract to supply 12 diesel-electric submarines to Australia, signed in 2016, France called the move “a stab in the back” and “a betrayal” and recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia. Germany and other European Union partners rallied behind France in its criticism of America and a push for greater strategic autonomy.
For China, the rift between the US and France is further proof that America’s global leadership and alliances are in decline. It may also give rise to hopes in Beijing that it can leverage the situation to pull disillusioned allies away from Washington’s efforts to isolate China. Beijing has for years been trying to establish itself in Europe to help its global strategy, mainly through lucrative trade deals and charm offensives, including repeated calls for Paris and Brussels to remain independent on foreign policy.

Will Aukus defence deal push China to overcome its Achilles’ heel?

“It will continue to do so, and certainly try to exploit the anti-US sentiment in France and in other European nations,” said Philippe Le Corre, a non-resident fellow in the Europe and Asia programmes at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

He said there was “a small window of opportunity” for China in the diplomatic row across the Atlantic – the culmination of years of tension, particularly during the Donald Trump era, over issues including Washington’s confrontational approach to Beijing.

“But things will get back to normal, sooner rather than later,” according to Le Corre.

The US and France have taken a step to ease tensions, with presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron agreeing in a phone call on Wednesday to meet in Europe next month, and for the French ambassador to return to Washington this week.

03:51

US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific

US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific

While it has underlined the divide between the US and its allies over the pace and extent of Washington’s campaign to counter Beijing, analysts say their differences should not be overstated.

“I don’t see China being able to leverage much out of the row, even though the decision to announce the CPTPP application is part designed to do just that,” said George Magnus, a research associate at the University of Oxford’s China Centre.

Just a day after the Aukus pact was revealed, Beijing sought to join the CPTPP – an 11-nation Pacific trade deal led by some of Washington’s closest allies, including Tokyo and Canberra. Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian denied any link between China’s application and the Aukus announcement.

“However, that application is mostly a political stunt, and so as the fury between France and Aukus participants ebbs, China’s opportunism will likely prove limited,” Magnus said.

China vs US: beneath the surface of the submarine technology gap

Shi Yinhong, a US affairs expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said China should focus on how it will handle the new alliance rather than seeking to benefit from the US-France feud.

“I don’t see how Beijing can manoeuvre and gain [from this]. Both France and the US share the understanding that China needs to be curbed,” he said. “Their differences are largely over the extent and how to do this, and who should take the lead.”

Shi said Washington would have to prioritise between confronting China and tending to its allies.

“But given that getting tough on China is an overriding priority with bipartisan consensus, it’s unlikely that Washington will budge on this in the face of opposition from its allies and partners,” he said.

European Union partners have rallied behind France in its criticism of America. Photo: AFP

Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said France’s fury was mainly over economic rather than political considerations, noting that Macron was seeking re-election next year.

“Even with Aukus, the EU shares more commonalities with the US on its strategic agendas – more than it will ever share with China,” she said. “This may be an ugly episode, but people should not exaggerate its depth.”

Magnus said the new trilateral deal could have a far-reaching impact on US-China rivalry.

“Even though the submarines won’t be in service for some time, the messaging is about the long-term binding of Australian security interests to those of the US, and the intention to project naval and military power throughout the Asia-Pacific,” he said. “It complements the Quad and Five Eyes arrangements, and conveys further the broad-based nature of the strategy to act as a bulwark against what the participants see as a more nationalistic and aggressive China.”

For years, US told India it couldn’t share nuclear submarine technology. ‘And now this …’

Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said that by launching Aukus, “the US has effectively forced on China a new timeline to complete its effort to reshape the Western-dominated world order. It also forced China to shift focus from its attention and ambitions from the Eurasian land mass to the maritime front.”

It could also give Beijing stronger incentive to find a solution to the Taiwan problem before Aukus and other alliances take root, according to Luft.

“China’s shipbuilding capacity will allow it to outnumber any combination of rival navies, not to mention that Aukus also paves the road to stronger security cooperation and technology sharing between Russia and China,” he said.

Xi warns of ‘complex and grim’ Taiwan situation in letter to new KMT leader

Huang Jing, dean of the Institute of International and Regional Studies at the Beijing Language and Culture University, said it was “a deeply divisive move for the US to pick two allies to form a new military pact while leaving the rest … out in the cold”.

“Apart from the proliferation risk, Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines will upset the delicate power balance in the region, and they may not be welcome in the region,” he said.

But Huang also did not see that China had much to gain from the dispute.

“China’s ultimate goal is not to pull the EU into its orbit,” he said. “It’s more realistic, to try to ensure that Europe stays neutral in the US-China feud.”

42