Aukus fallout: is there a ‘small window of opportunity’ for China?
- Diplomatic feud between US and France over submarine deal may give rise to hopes in Beijing that it can leverage the situation
- But analysts say the differences between Washington and its allies over efforts to contain China should not be overstated
By sharing for the first time sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Canberra, Washington has made major gains in bringing its Indo-Pacific ally into the fold to collectively confront Beijing, a step to further tilt the balance of military power away from China, according to analysts.
It was also a big deal for Paris, but for different reasons.
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“It will continue to do so, and certainly try to exploit the anti-US sentiment in France and in other European nations,” said Philippe Le Corre, a non-resident fellow in the Europe and Asia programmes at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
He said there was “a small window of opportunity” for China in the diplomatic row across the Atlantic – the culmination of years of tension, particularly during the Donald Trump era, over issues including Washington’s confrontational approach to Beijing.
“But things will get back to normal, sooner rather than later,” according to Le Corre.
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While it has underlined the divide between the US and its allies over the pace and extent of Washington’s campaign to counter Beijing, analysts say their differences should not be overstated.
“I don’t see China being able to leverage much out of the row, even though the decision to announce the CPTPP application is part designed to do just that,” said George Magnus, a research associate at the University of Oxford’s China Centre.
“However, that application is mostly a political stunt, and so as the fury between France and Aukus participants ebbs, China’s opportunism will likely prove limited,” Magnus said.
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Shi Yinhong, a US affairs expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said China should focus on how it will handle the new alliance rather than seeking to benefit from the US-France feud.
“I don’t see how Beijing can manoeuvre and gain [from this]. Both France and the US share the understanding that China needs to be curbed,” he said. “Their differences are largely over the extent and how to do this, and who should take the lead.”
Shi said Washington would have to prioritise between confronting China and tending to its allies.
“But given that getting tough on China is an overriding priority with bipartisan consensus, it’s unlikely that Washington will budge on this in the face of opposition from its allies and partners,” he said.
Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said France’s fury was mainly over economic rather than political considerations, noting that Macron was seeking re-election next year.
“Even with Aukus, the EU shares more commonalities with the US on its strategic agendas – more than it will ever share with China,” she said. “This may be an ugly episode, but people should not exaggerate its depth.”
Magnus said the new trilateral deal could have a far-reaching impact on US-China rivalry.
“Even though the submarines won’t be in service for some time, the messaging is about the long-term binding of Australian security interests to those of the US, and the intention to project naval and military power throughout the Asia-Pacific,” he said. “It complements the Quad and Five Eyes arrangements, and conveys further the broad-based nature of the strategy to act as a bulwark against what the participants see as a more nationalistic and aggressive China.”
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Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said that by launching Aukus, “the US has effectively forced on China a new timeline to complete its effort to reshape the Western-dominated world order. It also forced China to shift focus from its attention and ambitions from the Eurasian land mass to the maritime front.”
It could also give Beijing stronger incentive to find a solution to the Taiwan problem before Aukus and other alliances take root, according to Luft.
“China’s shipbuilding capacity will allow it to outnumber any combination of rival navies, not to mention that Aukus also paves the road to stronger security cooperation and technology sharing between Russia and China,” he said.
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Huang Jing, dean of the Institute of International and Regional Studies at the Beijing Language and Culture University, said it was “a deeply divisive move for the US to pick two allies to form a new military pact while leaving the rest … out in the cold”.
“Apart from the proliferation risk, Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines will upset the delicate power balance in the region, and they may not be welcome in the region,” he said.
But Huang also did not see that China had much to gain from the dispute.
“China’s ultimate goal is not to pull the EU into its orbit,” he said. “It’s more realistic, to try to ensure that Europe stays neutral in the US-China feud.”