Are China and Germany poised for business as usual after Merkel?
- As Germany braces for months of wrangling over a coalition, China hopes the new leadership will retain the ‘balanced’ approach of the Merkel era
- Though parties hawkish on China are certain to share power in Berlin, analysts are united in their belief that economic pragmatism will win the day
“We hope that the new German government will continue its pragmatic and balanced China policy and consolidate the main tone of Sino-German cooperation,” Hua said.
“Chancellor Merkel attached great importance to developing relations with China. During her term of office, she visited China 12 times, and co-chaired all six rounds of Sino-German government consultations, promoting pragmatic cooperation and friendly exchanges in various fields which brought tangible benefits to the peoples of both countries, and also [promoted] exchanges and cooperation between China and Europe,” she said.
“China is ready to work with the new German government to maintain bilateral relations, keep channels of dialogue and cooperation open, continue to push ahead with pragmatic cooperation based on mutual benefits and respect, and seek common ground while setting aside differences in order to further develop stable bilateral relations.”
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In her 16 years at the helm of German affairs, Merkel stood out among European leaders in being a strong advocate for engaging with China. The two countries established close commercial ties under her leadership, with China becoming Germany’s largest trading partner for the fifth straight year in 2020.
Now, Sino-German relations face new uncertainty, experts warn, as parties with a tough China approach are likely to be part of the new governing coalition.
Two parties holding a tough stance on China – the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) – took third and fourth place, respectively, with 14.8 per cent and 11.5 per cent of votes cast in the federal election.
“The Green Party and FDP are highly likely to join the governing coalition regardless of whether the SPD or the CDU-CSU bloc is the ruling party,” said Sun Qi, an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
“In the next German government, forces advocating for a tougher stance towards Beijing will rise, which increases uncertainties in Sino-German relations.”
Other factors, including cooling China-EU ties, further Sino-US confrontation and rising ideological disputes might also have an impact on Sino-German relations, he added.
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“Given the technological nationalism and protectionism in Germany, especially the emphasis on its strategic and supply chain security, the close bilateral trade and investment and industrial ties between China and Germany will be affected, and this will lead to an increase in contradictions in terms of values and the human rights concept advocated by the EU,” Yu said.
But both Sun and Yu said Sino-German relations were not likely to deviate too much from what they were during the Merkel era, with cooperation remaining the main theme.
That analysis was echoed by Song Luzheng, researcher in international relations at Shanghai’s Fudan University, who argued the Greens were not strong enough to have a great negative impact on ties and that China had a significant role to play in the German economy.
“The economy is pretty much the only thing Germany can rely on to maintain its international status,” he said. “The next coalition is highly likely to be formed by three parties, and it would be difficult for the three to reach consensus, making it harder for Germany to take a tough stance against China.”
