At COP26 summit in Glasgow, China-US tensions could shape the world’s climate future
- Hopes of superpower competition spurring the two nations in a ‘race to the top’, pushing each to outdo its rival in climate action
- With so many areas of tension between Washington and Beijing, a multilateral process such as COP26 may be more effective than bilateral talks, says observer
“If the national governments of China and the US are not able to agree on anything of substance, I think there may well be room for serious action anyway, because both countries are able and willing to do a lot on their own,” said Mary Nichols, who led major climate initiatives as chair of the California Air Resources Board.
“But that doesn’t mean that it’s irrelevant,” she said. “Without an explicit agreement, other countries will be reluctant to act.”
Kerry has travelled twice to China despite a chill in relations. But on his latest visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a warning.
“It is impossible for China-US climate cooperation to be elevated above the overall environment of China-US relations,” Wang said.
The remarks raised concern in Washington that the Biden-Kerry approach could backfire, allowing China to use climate as leverage.
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“It improves China’s global reputation to appear as a positive actor on climate,” Wang said.
“If the leaders in China feel like they are becoming laggards, I think it would lead to some pressure to act further, and it would be a reason to disregard the voices from fossil fuel industries or coal industry within the country,” he said.
“But without the pressure then the balance shifts in favour of slower action.”
He drew a contrast with Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump, whose climate scepticism meant there was little pressure on Beijing to tackle coal.
Nichols, who helped design California’s cap-and-trade programme that creates a market with incentives for reducing emissions, said one major step would be if China agreed to link efforts to set a common price on carbon.
“That would, I think, send an extraordinarily strong signal to investors and businesses around the world,” said Nichols, now a fellow at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.
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California already has linked its market to Quebec, taking a lead in action even before Biden’s election.
With so many areas of tension between the United States and China, a multilateral process such as COP26 may be more effective in any case than bilateral talks, said Jacob Stokes, a fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.
“Neither side wants to be seen as doing this as some sort of favour to the other side,” he said.
“Is it more important to expend effort to get concessions from Beijing or to try to finance expansion of clean power in the rest of the developing world that still has a lot more energy-intensive development to do?”