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Under the current terms of their alliance, South Korean troops are under US command in the event of conflict. Photo: Bloomberg

Prepare for South Korea and US to expand military alliance, China warned

  • The US has been trying to use its allies to help contain China and a recent foreign policy paper says these efforts may include Seoul
  • Beijing’s worst-case scenario would see the South joining Japan and the US in opposing an attack on Taiwan, but it is not clear if it is willing to do so
Beijing should be prepared in case South Korea and the United States seek to develop their military alliance further, a recent Chinese foreign policy analysis has warned.

The assessment, made by two scholars with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), one of the country’s largest and most influential foreign policy research institutes, came as Washington is renewing its focus on its alliances as part of its efforts to contain China.

Since US President Joe Biden took office in January, the White House has pushed for broader cooperation with South Korea on multiple fronts, including manufacturing, 5G, semiconductors and supply chains, Sun Ru, the deputy director of the CICIR Institute of World Political Studies and Wang Fudong, an associate fellow, wrote in the report published last week.

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Washington and Seoul’s military alliance is a particularly sensitive issue in Beijing given the geography.
One of the worst case scenarios for China would see South Korea – which now hosts more than 26,000 US troops, one of America’s biggest overseas deployments – teaming up with the US in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

The US would have wartime operational command over the South Korean military, according to the terms of their defensive alliance, but the two sides are in talks to transfer authority to Seoul next year.

However, as its rivalry with China continues to deepen, the US has also raised the issue of expanding their military alliance.

In 2019, following reports that the US wanted to expand their joint crisis management manual to cover US requests for military support in places like the Middle East, South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, Yonhap News Agency reported that one source said South Korea opposed the move, but “all options and scenarios could be on the table” over time.

At his Senate confirmation hearing in May, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), expressed support for the force being included in contingency plans for the Indo-Pacific, saying: “USFK forces are uniquely positioned to provide the US Indo-Pacific Command commander a range of capabilities that create options for supporting out-of-area contingencies and responses to regional threats.”

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In May, the US and South Korea agreed to lift decades-old restrictions on the range of the missiles Seoul possesses, allowing it to hit targets far beyond the Korean peninsula. Four months later, South Korea confirmed that it had launched a ballistic missile from a submarine, making it the first non-nuclear power with such capabilities.

“By lifting restrictions on missile development … [and] allowing South Korea to develop medium- and long-range missiles, the Biden administration has both brought South Korea into the fold and used the alliance to contain China,” the report warned.

South Korea said at that time that its missile capabilities were a clear deterrent to the North, but Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor and military affairs commentator, said it could pose a threat to China as well.

“Although it would be difficult to pick sides between China and the US, South Korea would have to if there is a war and under the alliance, its military has to submit to the authority of the US,” Song said.

“Even though South Korea may not want to interfere in China’s internal affairs, it may be pressured to do so by the US.”

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The CICIR report warned that South Korea might follow the example of Japan which, according to the Financial Times, has been making contingency plans for a conflict over Taiwan since 2019.

“As the situation in the Taiwan Strait continues to be tense, the US is speculating about the reunification of mainland China by force and in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult for South Korea to reject the US by mobilising its troops,” it said.

In May, after Biden and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in met in Washington, Moon denied that he had come under pressure to take a tougher stance on Taiwan and said the“two sides agreed how important that region is, especially considering the special characteristics between China and Taiwan”.

There has been speculation that Washington is keen to expand the Quad alliance beyond the four current members – the US, Australia, India and Japan – but Seoul has, so far, been hesitant.

“China should send a clear signal to the US and South Korea in a timely manner and take the necessary measures to fight and raise the cost of their China-related cooperation,” the report said.

Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor with Renmin University in Beijing, said South Korea, under Moon’s ­policy of strategic neutrality, was unlikely to swing to the US and upset China, its major trading partner and a key player on the Korean peninsula.

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But Moon will step down next May at the end of his term and his successor may shift the country’s strategic direction.

“The US has pinned its hopes on the next government but even if the [pro-US] conservative party wins, South Korea may not stand with the US in confronting China because of its strong economic ties with China,” Cheng said.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Warning raised of S Korea, US expanding military ties
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