Prepare for South Korea and US to expand military alliance, China warned
- The US has been trying to use its allies to help contain China and a recent foreign policy paper says these efforts may include Seoul
- Beijing’s worst-case scenario would see the South joining Japan and the US in opposing an attack on Taiwan, but it is not clear if it is willing to do so
The assessment, made by two scholars with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), one of the country’s largest and most influential foreign policy research institutes, came as Washington is renewing its focus on its alliances as part of its efforts to contain China.
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The US would have wartime operational command over the South Korean military, according to the terms of their defensive alliance, but the two sides are in talks to transfer authority to Seoul next year.
However, as its rivalry with China continues to deepen, the US has also raised the issue of expanding their military alliance.
In 2019, following reports that the US wanted to expand their joint crisis management manual to cover US requests for military support in places like the Middle East, South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, Yonhap News Agency reported that one source said South Korea opposed the move, but “all options and scenarios could be on the table” over time.
At his Senate confirmation hearing in May, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), expressed support for the force being included in contingency plans for the Indo-Pacific, saying: “USFK forces are uniquely positioned to provide the US Indo-Pacific Command commander a range of capabilities that create options for supporting out-of-area contingencies and responses to regional threats.”
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“By lifting restrictions on missile development … [and] allowing South Korea to develop medium- and long-range missiles, the Biden administration has both brought South Korea into the fold and used the alliance to contain China,” the report warned.
South Korea said at that time that its missile capabilities were a clear deterrent to the North, but Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor and military affairs commentator, said it could pose a threat to China as well.
“Although it would be difficult to pick sides between China and the US, South Korea would have to if there is a war and under the alliance, its military has to submit to the authority of the US,” Song said.
“Even though South Korea may not want to interfere in China’s internal affairs, it may be pressured to do so by the US.”
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The CICIR report warned that South Korea might follow the example of Japan which, according to the Financial Times, has been making contingency plans for a conflict over Taiwan since 2019.
“As the situation in the Taiwan Strait continues to be tense, the US is speculating about the reunification of mainland China by force and in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult for South Korea to reject the US by mobilising its troops,” it said.
In May, after Biden and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in met in Washington, Moon denied that he had come under pressure to take a tougher stance on Taiwan and said the“two sides agreed how important that region is, especially considering the special characteristics between China and Taiwan”.
“China should send a clear signal to the US and South Korea in a timely manner and take the necessary measures to fight and raise the cost of their China-related cooperation,” the report said.
Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor with Renmin University in Beijing, said South Korea, under Moon’s policy of strategic neutrality, was unlikely to swing to the US and upset China, its major trading partner and a key player on the Korean peninsula.
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But Moon will step down next May at the end of his term and his successor may shift the country’s strategic direction.
“The US has pinned its hopes on the next government but even if the [pro-US] conservative party wins, South Korea may not stand with the US in confronting China because of its strong economic ties with China,” Cheng said.