After witnessing the ups and downs of climate negotiations over the past decade, Li Shuo sometimes feels frustrated. As a veteran climate campaigner with Greenpeace East Asia, he has seen a “complete circle” – from the catastrophic 2009 Copenhagen summit, through the landmark 2015 Paris climate accord to this year’s pivotal conference in Glasgow . “The global climate momentum depends on many different factors, including the economic situation across the world and the political dynamic in key countries. These variables keep on changing,” Li said. “I feel lucky in the sense that I sort of see a complete cycle – the different political dynamics; the positive and negative aspects; the progress and the challenges.” COP26: developed nations should meet climate finance pledges, China says The world is now at a crossroads ahead of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) which opens on Sunday. A UN report published earlier this year warned that there was a 50-50 chance global temperatures would rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next two decades. It warned that without immediate and rapid efforts to cut emissions, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century would be beyond reach, and said countries needed to take aggressive action to curb carbon emissions beyond 2030. Meanwhile, countries have to submit new or updated emissions reduction commitments, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions, before COP26. “Globally there is no question that 1.5 degrees Celsius is what we need to be seeking,” said David Waskow, the director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute (WRI). Under the Paris agreement, countries agreed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, and try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. But some developed and vulnerable countries have urged the international community to go further, by limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century and reaching net-zero emissions by around 2050. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2019 showed a number of climate change effects could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, for example between 10 and 30 per cent of coral reefs would survive, while virtually all would be lost with a two-degree rise Meanwhile, another report by the IPCC in August warned that global warming was already causing record numbers of droughts and floods around the world and that the situation would only get worse without action. Despite the urgency of these warnings, international tensions and domestic political concerns are still a complicating factor in the climate negotiations. China submitted its emissions reduction commitments to the United Nations on Thursday, in which it reiterated President Xi Jinping’s pledges at a UN conference last year to reach peak emissions by 2030 and make China carbon neutral by 2060, disappointing many observers . US chides Xi Jinping for his anticipated absence from G20 and COP26 “Six years after the Paris Agreement, China’s choice epitomises the lack of determination to step up climate action among some of the major economies,” Greenpeace’s Li said. “It also reflects Beijing’s doubts about the US ability to fulfil its carbon reduction and climate finance targets. There’s real fear that Washington’s empty words will intensify an already unfair global climate order.” Domestic concerns may also have been a factor following the recent power crunch that affected more than half of China’s provinces and highlighted the difficulties of moving away from fuels such as coal. The cuts prompted the government to move to safeguard coal supplies and boost production . In mid-October, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, said the country’s coal output had hit its highest levels this year – at 11.6 million tonnes a day. Reuters calculated that the total coal output could reach an all-time high this month if the existing pace of production continued. Li also warned that the US might only be able to offer “rhetorical leadership” if President Joe Biden could not get the country’s two main pledges – to halve emissions by 2030 and to double climate finance to developing countries by 2024 – through Congress. “The US’ biggest problem is rhetorical leadership, and whether it can turn this rhetorical leadership into leadership in action depends on the Congress,” he added. COP26, G20 prospects dimmer without China’s Xi Jinping in the room The increased rivalry between China and the US has also made climate engagement harder, according to observers. “Back in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was adopted, the US and China were in a honeymoon period and the two countries were willing to reach a consensus and make breakthroughs on climate issues,” Li said. “Now these political conditions no longer exist.” The underlying question is how to make progress. Unlike some developed countries, China has not offered clear support for the 1.5-degree target – a stance that may be down to its own levels of economic and industrial development. “We do not actively promote the revision of this target, nor do we oppose it,” Wang Mou, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said on Tuesday. “From China’s stage of development as well as its future development demands, I think it is unnecessary for us to actively promote the 1.5 degree process.” Glasgow climate summit at risk of failure, UN chief warns Wang also said that China’s target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 was more ambitious than the two-degree target. Zou Ji, president of Energy Foundation China, said his institute had concluded there was a high chance that China would reach peak emissions by 2025 after analysing provincial data from 2010 to 2018. Research carried out by the WRI last year reached a similar conclusion – that China could reach peak emissions by 2026 – and could benefit economically over the long term by strengthening its climate and energy policies now. “China is correct that nations must focus on implementation. That does not alter the fact that China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, needs to do more. Not to rescue the rest of the world but to save itself,” said Alexandra Hackbarth, senior policy adviser at E3G, an international climate change think tank.