China warns off new German government over Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang

Coalition agreement of Olaf Scholz’s incoming government signals willingness to challenge Beijing on sensitive topics
Chinese foreign ministry urges Berlin to ‘continue its pragmatic China policy’

China-EU relations

Shi Jiangtaoin Hong KongandFinbarr Berminghamin Brussels

Published: 7:59pm, 25 Nov 2021

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Beijing warned Germany’s new coalition government not to interfere over Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and urged it to stick to previous friendly policies after it unveiled a tougher agenda on China.

Social Democrat Olaf Scholz on Wednesday announced a deal to form a government with the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), succeeding Angela Merkel as chancellor.

The government is expected to be sworn in next month with key cabinet positions filled with tough-talkers on China. A 177-page coalition agreement contains more than a dozen references to China, and for the first time mentions human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the erosion of rights in Hong Kong, and the Taiwan issue.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Wednesday said China attached great importance to its all-round strategic partnership with Germany, noting next year’s 50th anniversary of official ties.

“I hope that the new German government will continue its pragmatic China policy and meet China halfway,” he said.

Zhao added that Xinjiang and Hong Kong were China’s internal affairs, and said in reference to Taiwan: “All previous German governments have upheld the one-China policy, and I hope that the new German government will continue to abide by this policy.”

The coalition agreement said that Germany wanted to “develop our relations with China in the dimensions of partnership, shaping competition and system rivalry”, and would seek China’s cooperation “on the basis of human rights” where possible.

Describing Beijing as a “systemic rival”, it called for a “a comprehensive China strategy in Germany within the framework of the common EU-China policy”.

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It urged China to “play a responsible role for peace and stability in its neighbourhood”, and said Germany was “committed to ensuring that territorial disputes in the South and East China seas are settled on the basis of international law of the sea”.

“As part of the EU’s one-China policy, we support the factual participation of democratic Taiwan in international organisations,” the negotiated text read. “We address clearly China’s human rights abuses, particularly in Xinjiang. The principle of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong needs to be restored.”

Noah Barkin, managing editor with Rhodium Group’s China practice, called the document’s language on China “the strongest ever to appear in a German coalition agreement, reflecting growing concerns about the direction of China under Xi Jinping”.

The mentions of issues considered to be “red lines” by the ruling Chinese Communist Party “shows a readiness to speak more openly about differences with Beijing”, Barkin added.

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Cui Hongjian, director of European studies at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank affiliated with the foreign ministry, said bilateral tensions looked set to rise after the new German government takes office.

“The coalition pact is much more assertive on China than Germany’s existing policy and is particularly critical on several hotspot issues,” he said. “In the short term, differences and rifts between China and Germany will be on the rise.”

Ding Chun, director of the Centre for European Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, also voiced concerns about relations.

Given the Greens’ tough stance on China and the prevailing negative perceptions of China in Europe, he said the new German government would be likely to cut its economic reliance on China and challenge Beijing on trade, human rights and other issues.

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“It’s also worth noting that diplomatic pressure from Washington would play a key role in China’s relations with Germany,” he said. “Compared with the [16-year] Merkel era, bilateral ties are likely to turn sour. But I don’t think it would become as confrontational as US-China ties.”

Ding said he remained “cautiously optimistic”, citing Scholz’s past record on China and reputation as a pragmatist. He added that Berlin would be unlikely to turn against Beijing, especially on the green economy, auto industry and climate change, given its trade surplus with China.

Additional reporting by Catherine Wong