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South China Sea code of conduct may miss 2022 deadline, PLA adviser warns
- China and Asean yet to agree on many aspects of proposed code to manage tensions in disputed waterway, retired major general says in journal article
- US-China great power rivalry means extraterritorial interference will intensify as the bargaining deepens, Yao Yunzhu points out
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A China-Asean code of conduct for the disputed South China Sea is likely to miss its 2022 deadline, a Chinese military adviser has warned.
Yao Yunzhu, a retired People’s Liberation Army major general, put the expected delay down to unresolved disputes on the code’s scope and range, as well as intense US-China geopolitical rivalry and the Covid-19 pandemic.
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) remained divided on a number of contentious issues, Yao pointed out in the latest World Affairs journal, a monthly publication affiliated with the Chinese foreign ministry. This included whether the agreement should be legally binding, its geographic and maritime activities scope, as well as the role of extra-regional powers, Yao wrote.
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“As the negotiations deepen, bargaining will become more intense and interference from the US and other extraterritorial powers will intensify, making it more difficult to reach a consensus,” she said.
“There is still great uncertainty on whether China and the Asean would be able to complete the negotiations by the end of 2022 as scheduled.”
The code aims to manage tensions in the South China Sea, a resource-rich and strategically important waterway criss-crossed by overlapping claims from China and several Asean states. But progress on the negotiations, which started as far back as 2017, has stalled over the past two years, largely due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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