South China Sea code of conduct may miss 2022 deadline, PLA adviser warns

China and Asean yet to agree on many aspects of proposed code to manage tensions in disputed waterway, retired major general says in journal article
US-China great power rivalry means extraterritorial interference will intensify as the bargaining deepens, Yao Yunzhu points out

South China Sea

Laura Zhou

Published: 5:40pm, 27 Dec 2021

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A China-Asean code of conduct for the disputed South China Sea is likely to miss its 2022 deadline, a Chinese military adviser has warned.

Yao Yunzhu, a retired People’s Liberation Army major general, put the expected delay down to unresolved disputes on the code’s scope and range, as well as intense US-China geopolitical rivalry and the Covid-19 pandemic.

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) remained divided on a number of contentious issues, Yao pointed out in the latest World Affairs journal, a monthly publication affiliated with the Chinese foreign ministry. This included whether the agreement should be legally binding, its geographic and maritime activities scope, as well as the role of extra-regional powers, Yao wrote.

“As the negotiations deepen, bargaining will become more intense and interference from the US and other extraterritorial powers will intensify, making it more difficult to reach a consensus,” she said.

“There is still great uncertainty on whether China and the Asean would be able to complete the negotiations by the end of 2022 as scheduled.”

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The code aims to manage tensions in the South China Sea, a resource-rich and strategically important waterway criss-crossed by overlapping claims from China and several Asean states. But progress on the negotiations, which started as far back as 2017, has stalled over the past two years, largely due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In August, China and the 10-member bloc announced agreement on the preface for the code, eight months after they resumed negotiations in January. Discussions on the second reading of the draft have been ongoing via video link.

Beijing has been pushing for a speedy conclusion on the code of conduct, saying this would help manage tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, but critics worry that it is also seeking to keep the US at bay.

Under President Joe Biden, the US has steadily hardened its stance in the South China Sea, including vowing to defend the Philippines under a 1951 treaty.

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During their visits to Southeast Asia in the past year, senior US officials, including Vice-President Kamala Harris, defence chief Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have pledged to provide security backup to other South China Sea claimants to counter Beijing’s assertiveness in the contested waters.

Apart from stepping up warship transits of the South China Sea alongside its major European allies, Washington in September announced a three-way military partnership with Australia and Britain – the Aukus alliance – which Beijing condemned as being part of a US-led containment strategy targeting China.

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“In short, the Biden administration’s South China Sea policy has shifted from singular provocation to collective momentum building, with a view to creating a superior US military power comparison, and political and diplomatic posturing, to shape a long-term containment of China,” Yao concluded.

With both China and the US bolstering their military presence, the South China Sea has become a major potential flashpoint in the region.

Last week, Communist Party mouthpiece the People’s Daily reported that the Shandong – China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier – had left for “combat-oriented exercises” in the South China Sea.

The US military has also stepped up surveillance activities against China. Last month, it flew 94 sorties over the South China Sea, up by a quarter from the February record, according to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based think tank.

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Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and former director of Beijing’s international military cooperation office, said the risk of a collision between Chinese and US warships in the South China Sea was increasing in a dangerous way.

The existing mechanisms, including the non-binding documents signed in 2014 on the rules of behaviour for air and maritime encounters, might not work in real-world situations, Zhou told state-owned broadcaster CGTN on Sunday, as he called for drills to ensure warships “maintain a safe distance”.

“How do the two sides operate in a professional manner with each other? This will require regular exercises to prevent accidental encounters at sea, so that a safe distance can be maintained.”