From the South China Sea to the Indian border – a Chinese think tank weighs in on China’s geopolitical risks in 2022

The threat of a U-turn in the Philippines’ South China Sea policy could loom large after May’s presidential elections, the Centre for International Security and Strategy warns

The border with India and a French far-right leader are other potential flashpoints

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Members of the Philippine Coast Guard patrol Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea, much of which is claimed by Beijing. Photo: Philippine Coast Guard via AP

Published: 9:00pm, 17 Jan 2022Updated: 10:00pm, 17 Jan 2022

A Chinese think tank has warned Beijing of geopolitical risks this year, highlighting a possible U-turn in Manila’s South China Sea policy after the Philippine presidential election in May.

In its forecast of China’s external security risks in 2022, the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University said threats on China’s borders and in surrounding waters were of greatest importance.

It said possibilities included “a new leader of the Philippines drastically adjusting its South China Sea policy after taking office, leading to emergencies in the disputed waters between the two countries”.

The Philippines will vote for a new president to replace Rodrigo Duterte, who has sought friendlier ties with Beijing during his six-year term.

The Philippines is one of a number of regional players that disputes China’s claim to most of the South China Sea. In 2013, Manila applied to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague for a ruling on the dispute, with the tribunal deciding in 2016 that there was no legal basis for China’s claim.

Duterte has not promoted the ruling, an approach that Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, one of the main contenders for the presidency, supports.

But Vice-President Leni Robredo, another presidential contender, has described China’s presence in Philippine waters as the “most serious external threat” that the country has faced since World War II.

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