Taiwan war risk highest in past 25 years as US tensions rise, mainland expert warns

Name: Chinese President, Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan ‘must be realised’
Uploaded: 2022-01-20T13:46:28.000Z
Duration: 3 min 55 s
Description: Chinese President, Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan ‘must be realised’

Growing US support for Taipei and Beijing’s ramped up reunification rhetoric mean risk of conflict highest since 1996 crisis, academic points out

Beijing unlikely to show aversion to military conflict, as this would deepen US support and make Taiwan more determined to seek independence, Shi Yinhong says

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US Navy and coastguard ships conduct Taiwan Strait transits. Photo: Handout via Reuters

Amber Wang

Published: 9:46pm, 20 Jan 2022

The risk of war over Taiwan is at its highest since the 1996 cross-strait missile crisis, a mainland foreign relations expert has warned.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, noted how tensions in the Taiwan Strait have steadily escalated amid growing US support for Taiwan. Beijing sees the self-ruled island as a breakaway province and has made reunification a much more pressing goal in recent years.

This goal – which Beijing aims to achieve within a decade – could mean a massive use of force, or the threat of a massive use of force, Shi told an international relations forum in Beijing on Thursday.

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Chinese President, Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan ‘must be realised’

Warning that confrontations over Taiwan might lead to armed conflict or even a war in the strait, Shi said a serious and careful assessment of the situation was more necessary now than at any time in the past 25 years, in a reference to the Taiwan Strait missile crisis of 1996.

In 1996, as Taiwan was preparing to hold its first direct presidential election, Beijing held a series of military exercises and fired missiles in the waters surrounding the island, prompting the US to deploy carrier strike groups to international waters near it.

“The Chinese government is unlikely to give the United States and Taiwan an impression that [it] seeks to completely avoid military conflict with the US over Taiwan, as Beijing believes this will lead to a deepening of US support for Taiwan, and make Taiwan more determined to seek independence,” Shi said.

All parties must assess the situation and be prepared in case there is war over Taiwan, he said.