In fast-changing Europe, rage against Russia fuels suspicion of China

It was a week that will change Europe forever, and in many different ways. Russia’s invasion threatens to tear up the boundaries that have marked Ukraine’s independence for more than three decades. Millions of Ukrainians will spill across borders in search of safe havens in European neighbours. In Europe’s sleepy corridors of power too, change has come at a breakneck pace. Galvanised by crisis, taboos are falling daily, with purposeful vigour replacing bureaucratic sluggishness. Switzerland – a favoured bolthole for Russia’s elite – waived historic neutrality to join biting Western sanctions on Moscow. Historically non-aligned Sweden and Finland are seriously considering joining Nato, while the EU will fund the sale of lethal weapons and arms to a war zone for the first time ever. “European security and defence has evolved more in the last six days than in the last two decades,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. For some, this is an understatement: lawmakers watched in shock as the usually staid German Chancellor Olaf Scholz quietly dismantled 30 years of foreign policy over the course of an hour on Sunday afternoon. Scholz committed to a €100 billion (US$111 billion) defence fund, dropped opposition to arming Ukraine, supported banning Russian banks from Swift, and freezing Russia’s central bank assets in Europe. Each was inconceivable 24 hours earlier. “We’re a country of gradualism. This is probably the biggest shift in policy that I’ve seen in a long time, maybe in my whole life,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a vice-president at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Ukrainian musicians in Seoul swap instruments for arms and head home During conversations with diplomats, officials and academics in Europe this week, the change feels palpable, and China is not immune from the consequences. “The world just seems a totally different place than what we thought it was a week ago,” said Pascal Abb, a professor specialising in Chinese foreign policy at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. “I think it’s going to have repercussions beyond this question of how to deal with Russia. It is definitely going to shape our policies towards China as well.” On the surface, officials and diplomats have been espousing the need to engage with Beijing, which they want to “exert its influence” to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from continuing the offensive. This amounted to an aggressive lobby campaign in New York and Beijing, ahead of key votes on a resolution to condemn Russia at the United Nations. China abstained, in what some officials saw as “an encouraging sign”. “China classically attaches great importance to territorial integrity,” said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “I don’t think it is in China’s interest to see the world’s boundaries being torn up by the illegitimate use of force. And this is a point that we’ve been making through diplomatic contacts with China.” The lobbying continues, but has evolved: the EU is now pushing China to help negotiate a ceasefire. “What is key at the moment is to press Russia for an immediate ceasefire and China has the potential to reach out to Moscow – we would like it to use its influence to press for a ceasefire,” said Nabila Massrali, its foreign affairs spokeswoman. China-backed AIIB puts Russia lending ‘on hold’ over Ukraine invasion But behind the scenes, there is frustration at China’s unwillingness to budge on basic points, such as its refusal to use the word “invasion” to describe Russia’s actions, or to criticise Putin at all. During meetings with the EU and its member states, Chinese officials parrot the same five points, apportioning blame to Nato. Beijing’s official accounts of those meetings are not seen to reflect the reality of the conversations by Europeans. “China is calling for de-escalation and dialogue, but has avoided taking sides and will not call Russia’s actions what they are – unprovoked aggression,” Massrali said. We have zero expectation of China to deliver on this … And China should be worried, we’ve proven we can move fast Western European diplomat The spirit of the frustration was captured in a blog post by Ian Johnson for the Council on Foreign Relations this week, where he wrote that “even though China wants to position itself as essentially neutral and advocates dialogue, its positions are actually a remarkable defence of Russia and reflect strengthening China-Russia ties”. Conversations in Brussels inevitably turn to: “How much did China know, and when?” Fresh reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping asked Putin to hold off on the invasion until after the Winter Olympics will not quell these suspicions. The allegations were “never discussed nor raised in our contacts with Chinese counterparts”, Massrali said. After Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday said that “China is ready to make efforts to end the war through diplomacy”, a western European diplomat rolled their eyes when asked whether they would trust Beijing to defuse the situation. “We have zero expectation of China to deliver on this. Everything we learned in the last few years through Covid and wider relations means we don’t trust China. And China should be worried, we’ve proven we can move fast. After this crisis, there will be more and more suspicion,” they said. Fuelling the suspicion are concerns that Chinese officials are, at the very least, egging Putin on. A team of people in Brussels charged with studying disinformation noticed an uptick in “information manipulation that is related to Chinese actors” in the run-up to the invasion. Rather than directly spreading fake news, these often official government social media accounts “opportunistically reinforce the same message about the corruptness or the weakness of Western society”, said an official involved in the monitoring. “A second element that we see very often is of course about the superior, say, ability of authoritarian regimes to deal with crisis,” they said, adding that it was a continuation of a pattern first observed during the first year of the pandemic. China should not be on the wrong side of history. Europe will not forget China’s choice German lawmaker Reinhard Buetikofer They and others in Europe are watching closely the language in China’s state media, which has veered from burying news of the war on inside pages, to scathing whataboutery in highlighting previous wars instigated by the West. Nor has the growth spurt in the European backbone gone unnoticed in Beijing. Multiple European academics and researchers said they had been contacted this week by Chinese counterparts – startled by Germany’s policy shift – who wondered what it might mean for Beijing. For years Germany was dismissed by campaigners for caring more about the sale of Volkswagens in China than about security and human rights concerns. China has come to rely on what is seen as German pragmatism, ensuring business and politics are run on different tracks. That notion was blown out of the water on Sunday. Ukraine invasion: Hundreds feared dead in strategic port city After Scholz’s speech, his parliamentary group leader Rolf Muetzenich took the stage and said that Beijing sticking by Putin “would no longer be acceptable in my view”. “President Xi should find a clear language and must decide in these hours whether his country can continue to stand by Putin’s side, whom Beijing has so far regarded as a strategic partner,” he said. As Noah Barkin, an EU-China analyst for Rhodium Group, pointed out: “It was one thing for Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to issue such a warning at the Munich Security Conference last month, but quite another to hear it from the Social Democrats’ leading foreign policy dove.” One of the toughest voices on China in Europe, German lawmaker Reinhard Buetikofer, was more explicit. “Xi Jinping should use his leverage vis-a-vis Putin to help stopping this war of aggression. Nations are coming together globally to oppose Putin’s war. China should not be on the wrong side of history. Europe will not forget China’s choice,” said the Green Party member. It amounts to what Kurt Campbell, the top US official on Asia, described as an “awkward nexus” for China. Speaking on a webinar this week alongside his EU counterpart Gunnar Wiegand, there was a clear difference between the diplomatic face of Brussels and Washington’s willingness to be more openly hawkish. Ukraine invasion: Hundreds feared dead in strategic port city Wiegand focused on the need to “keep the lines of communication open” with China. Campbell – who seemed impressed by the speed with which Europe had moved on Russia – urged more directness on China. “We have to acknowledge that there are elements of the Russia-China relationship that are even playing out as we speak that are worrisome and regrettable,” Campbell told Wiegand. “We’re going to have to be honest and direct about that as we go forward.”