China’s links to Russia leave it exposed as Ukraine attack backfires, experts say
- China scrambles to defend support of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, given Beijing’s long-standing promotion of ‘non-interference in other nations’ internal affairs’
- The backing also threatens years of China’s patient building of global goodwill and economic footprint, including Belt and Road Initiative projects in Ukraine
“It’s backfired,” said Kevin Nealer, a previous member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. “It’s tested, in its nascent stages, the idea of an autocrats club in arenas that matter most to the legitimacy of the Chinese government – economic confidence and stability, delivering the goods on solid growth and being seen as a leader in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Within days of Putin’s order sending tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization closed ranks, deploying thousands of troops to bolster member states that border Ukraine.
The European Union also agreed to send lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine as did Germany, both historic firsts. Washington pledged US$350 million in military assistance in addition to the US$1 billion it gave Ukraine over the past year to counter Russia.
The premise behind Putin’s apparent gamble – and explicit statements by Beijing and Moscow – was that democracies are divided, weak and indecisive and the global liberal order obsolete. In a joint declaration made before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics – and shortly before the invasion – Russia and China announced a new “no limits” alliance.
I think this is really going to, in the long term, blow up in Beijing’s face
They have had lots of fodder for that argument, including the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, Brexit and the increase in deepening electoral divides more broadly.