Ukraine invasion: did China known about Putin’s plans, or was Beijing tricked?

It remains unclear what Beijing knew and when about Moscow’s plans, but its implied support for the Kremlin is damaging China’s interests

Observers are divided but there are growing doubts about the competence of Chinese intelligence gathering and strategic decision-making

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised questions about the extent of China’s support for Moscow. Photo: AP

Published: 1:16pm, 5 Mar 2022Updated: 12:45pm, 9 Mar 2022

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its second week, with mounting casualties and little sign of an immediate ceasefire, many China watchers are scratching their heads about Beijing’s role in the lead-up to the assault.

For China, which appears to have been caught off guard, a lot is at stake behind the question and there are few good answers.

It remains unclear if – or how much – Beijing knew about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans, despite Washington claims that China was informed of Moscow’s intentions ahead of last week’s invasion.

If the Chinese leadership did know of Putin’s coming aggression – which started immediately after the Winter Olympics in Beijing – and kept silent, some observers argue it could serve as evidence nailing China as Putin’s enabler.

Others say that, if Beijing had no clue about Russia’s intentions, China is exonerated from any role in the havoc wreaked in Ukraine by the Kremlin. Either way, China is in an increasingly uneasy spot, with growing doubts about the competence of its intelligence gathering and strategic decision-making.

China’s image as a responsible, peace-loving global power is taking a blow from perceptions that Beijing is siding with Putin’s Russia in a costly confrontation with the West, with real implications for Beijing’s global interests.

Also under scrutiny is the depth of Beijing’s much-touted strategic alignment with Moscow – and whether Putin tricked his Chinese friends into forming the “no limits” Sino-Russian partnership during his visit to Beijing early last month.