In that call, Wang continued to blame the expansion of US-led Nato for threatening Russia’s security environment, while Blinken warned that the world was watching China’s moves.

02:31

Mass graves dug in besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol as locals bury their dead

Mass graves dug in besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol as locals bury their dead

So far, China has continued to back its “most important strategic partner” and there is little sign suggesting that could change.

But as China calculates what to do, the deep mistrust in its relationship with the United States is clouding all calls for cooperation, observers say, with China still the top of the US’ geopolitical concerns.

Senior US, Chinese officials to meet as tensions mount over Ukraine

In Washington, there has been a debate on whether the administration should secure some measure of Chinese cooperation in enforcing sanctions and convincing Russia to de-escalate, sources have told the South China Morning Post.

However, for China, the waters have been muddied in the weeks since the Russian invasion began.

Both moves were meant to reassure Taiwan of US commitment to the island amid concerns that Chinese support for Russia could be part of preparation for an attack on Taiwan. But to Beijing, both actions were provocative.

China calls for verification of Russian claims of US bioweapons help to Ukraine

Zhao Long, from the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said it was clear that the US’ strategic priority was China and the conflict in Ukraine would not change this.

“It is clear that the overall strategy in the US is still to not overinvest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict which could result in overlooking its priority in containing China through the Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said.

Zhao said China also did not agree with the US response to Russia.

“On one hand you ask for coordination, ask for [our] mediation, but on the other hand, you raise sanctions continuously, and are pumping military assistance [to Ukraine] such as sending more weapons, and working with Poland to provide fighter jets,” Zhao said.

“I do not think this aligns with what China hopes to see. We want to make sure there is some fairness if we do get involved.”

Ukraine gives both sides of Taiwan Strait guerilla warfare lessons

The US focus on China was apparent earlier this month when US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said China would remain the US military’s top challenge.

“Russia and other threats will not be discounted,” Kendall said. “But China, with both regional and global ambitions, the resources to pursue them, and a repressive authoritarian system of government, will be our greatest strategic national security challenge.”

That came after Biden released his Indo-Pacific strategy last month, putting a heavy emphasis on alliances, military deterrence and a stronger presence in Southeast Asia to counter China’s growing regional and global footprint.

Zhao said that it was in this context that China was more willing to talk to Europe than the US.

“We think what the US is really seeking here is to drag China into this, instead of really hoping for substantial results from China,” he said.

The first big chance for Beijing and Brussels to test that willingness will be at the EU-China summit on April 1, which was skipped last year amid tit-for-tat sanctions and the stalling of a major investment agreement.

Both parties have shown eagerness to mend relations, but European sources in Beijing said they were worried that there could be little show apart from goodwill gestures.

In an interview with the Sinica podcast, Evan Feigenbaum, vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said China could agree to comply with sanctions on Russia down the road but for now it would continue to look for ways to pursue their economic relations with Russia.

This was not just because of “diplomatic-philosophical reasons” but also because of its relations with the US.

He said the US-China strategic competition “has been front and centre at the American security policy, industrial policy, education policy, science and technology policy and every other policy you and I can think of for the last five years to seven years”.

“On the diplomatic and strategic level, this government in China clearly judges that it has very little to gain by aligning its foreign policies with the US,” said Feigenbaum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of state.

China calls for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire over ‘grave’ conflict

Fudan University professor Ren Xiao said he did not see the US putting much public effort into helping China to mediate.

“It appears that the US has put their focus on sanctioning Russia, and is not really interested in having China mediate,” he said.

“There is a risk [for China] that the US is making use of this opportunity to draw itself closer to its Western allies, and they will be more united [against China] in their future moves.”

But Paul Haenle, a former China adviser to US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama said the US had made repeated efforts to earn China’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but China’s reaction had already suggested that there was little room to do as the US and the EU would hope.

“The challenge, however, is that China leaned into its strategic partnership in the immediate run-up to Russia’s invasion, and it will now have difficulty shifting positions,” Haenle said.

“As a result, there are serious doubts in the US and the EU that China will be able to play a neutral role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.”

02:54

China’s delicate position on Russia-Ukraine crisis and its opposition to Western sanctions

China’s delicate position on Russia-Ukraine crisis and its opposition to Western sanctions

Andrew Small, a senior transatlantic fellow with German Marshall Fund’s Asia Programme, echoed this view, saying it was not about whether the US was being genuine in their hopes, but the loss of hope that China would act in any meaningful way in the crisis.

“If China was willing to take on a genuine mediation role, I don’t think the US would have any inherent objections. The question is what responsibilities China is really ready to assume,” Small said.

“They can’t do the detailed work of mediation, lacking any familiarity with European security issues, and they don’t seem willing to exert any quiet pressure on Moscow as part of the process, which is implicitly what the Europeans are hoping for.

“In fact what China has done with Russia is precisely the opposite of this – refusing to coordinate even modestly with the US or Europeans, conveying US attempts to do so directly to Moscow, holding the pro-Russian line in private, and very publicly agreeing a ‘no limits’ partnership.”