Why China won’t get dragged into Russia’s war on Ukraine
- The US has warned Beijing of the ‘costs’ of siding with Moscow, with which it recently pledged a ‘no-limits’ friendship
- It would be a mistake to overstate the strength of those ties, as China would be wary of potential global blowback, say observers
This comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced concerns that Beijing might help Moscow with military equipment as the Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth week.
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However, analysts both in China and the US think Beijing is unlikely to come to the aid of Moscow, given that such an act would plunge the country – which prioritises economic development over other issues- in the middle of what could become a global crisis.
“On the world stage, China appears to be the only friend that Russia has left. But it would be a mistake to overstate the strength of such seeming Sino-Russian friendship,” Allen Carlson, associate professor at Cornell University’s department of government, said.
“President Xi Jinping is highly unlikely to allow China to get dragged into the conflict through providing direct military support to Russia.”
“The issue that most matters in the conflict for Beijing is not ending the war or bolstering friendships but protecting China’s own interests. So far, it appears that Xi has not yet come to a conclusion as to what those are,” Carlson said.
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Long Jing, deputy director of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ Centre for European Studies, said China has not sat idle – sequestered away from what was happening in Ukraine – but it has a different way of getting “involved”.
“China has expressed its stance very clearly, during bilateral meetings with foreign leaders or in high-profile op-eds. And from these channels, China has openly stated its standpoint and suggestions,” Long said.
“The biggest difference is China has not tilted towards a certain country, or only listened to one country’s appeals. Rather, Beijing has continuously called all the parties to exercise restraint and return to the negotiation table. I think this is also a way for China to play a role,” she explained.
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“China has always advocated respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries … China is committed to promoting peace talks,” Yang said.
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But analysts also point to the “costs” of Beijing coming to Moscow’s aid. David Silbey, an expert on military history and associate history professor at Cornell University, said China would face a potential global blowback if it decided to help Russia.
“In a cynical great power move, they could supply arms to the Russians to keep the US and the European nations focused on Ukraine and distract them from Asia. But that’s a dangerous game to play, given how fierce the blowback has been to anyone cooperating with Russia,” said Silbey.
That was the view also of a Chinese international relations scholar in Beijing, who requested to remain anonymous because the person needs permission to talk to the media.
