China’s special Horn of Africa envoy has work cut out ahead of first peace meet in conflict-hit region
- China will heed calls to do more in region ‘fed up’ with Western interventions, newly appointed envoy Xue Bing says
- As prolonged conflict threatens investments, China needs to see that economic growth and stability are a two-way street, observers point out
Visiting the Kenyan capital Nairobi over the weekend, Xue Bing, China’s newly appointed Horn of Africa envoy, said Kenya and Ethiopia had agreed to host the conference planned for the first half of this year.
The conference aims to be a platform for the eight nations concerned, to resolve conflicts and address the lingering instability in the region.
Africa should be left to chart its own course out of problems without “external” interference, Xue said, in an apparent swipe at Western nations for imposing their style of governance.
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“Some of the countries are just fed up with the foreign interventions,” Xue said in Nairobi on Saturday during his weeklong tour of the region.
Many issues affected peace and security in the Horn of Africa, he said, such as differences over boundaries, and ethnic and religious conflict.
“That is why China put forward the dialogue of peace and development, to provide a platform for countries to come together to settle their differences through consultation and negotiation,” he said.
China has vast investment interests in the Horn of Africa, a major destination for its development loans. However, the worsening security situation in some countries has put at risk China’s now trillion-dollar belt and road plan, which has helped build mega infrastructure projects including ports, highways, power dams and railways across the vast continent.
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Balancing economic interests and recent security challenges in the Horn of Africa would prove a tough task for China, according to Lina Benabdallah, specialist in China-Africa relations at the Wake Forest University in North Carolina.
China’s developmental peace approach so far had placed a premium on economic development as the prerequisite for peace and stability.
“I think the special envoy will have to play this role of mediation in order to safeguard investments and development interests.”
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The Horn of Africa has long been the site of civil wars, Islamist insurgencies and military coups threatening Chinese investments, most recently in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia. All three were on Xue’s travel list.
In Ethiopia, where the government’s bloody conflict with Tigrayan rebels is in its 16th month, Xue met Demeke Mekonnen, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister, to discuss investments in railways and ports as well as negotiation efforts to resolve conflicts.
In Somalia, militancy by jihadist fundamentalist group al-Shabab threatens regional security, particularly in southern neighbour Kenya, which had been forced by previous terrorist attacks to send troops across the border.
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In January, eight construction vehicles and equipment belonging to a Chinese construction company were set ablaze by suspected al-Shabab militants in Lamu on the Kenyan coast. The attacks have disrupted construction projects, prompting Chinese ambassador Zhou Pingjian to hold talks with Kenyan security chiefs last week.
Xue also visited Djibouti, home to China’s first overseas military base. From Nairobi, he proceeds to Uganda and South Sudan.
Luke Patey, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said while Xue’s visit underlined Beijing’s commitment to supporting peace and security in the region, “it is also important because what is unfolding is a test of China’s vision for developmental peace in overseas conflicts”.
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He said Beijing aspired for its infrastructure and manufacturing support to spur on peace and stability as economies grew. “Yet the realities of the region’s entrenched political and ethnic divisions may come crashing down on Beijing’s ambitions.”
“Prolonged insecurity on the Horn, including in Sudan and South Sudan, demonstrates that economic growth alone does not lead to stability,” Patey noted. “Beijing will need to continue to adjust its approach to these realities.”
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David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, pointed to China’s significant economic interests in the Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia a major destination for Chinese infrastructure loans, foreign direct investment, and political cooperation because the African Union headquarters is in the capital Addis Ababa.
“China was once active in efforts to resolve disputes in Sudan and South Sudan. Conflict resolution has taken a back seat more recently and I would be surprised if Xue Bing plays a major role in efforts to end ongoing conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia,” Shinn said.
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“China will make every effort to preserve its existing interests in the region without initiating significant new commitments.”
But to pursue peace, Xue would have to navigate an intractable winner-take-all political culture and build elite consensus, according to Aaron Tesfaye, political science professor at William Paterson University in New Jersey.
“He must be creative while offering the carrot [such as investment, aid and loans] in exchange for peace. He must garner political will for peace,” Tesfaye said. “Without peace and stability there won’t be any investment, whether domestic or international”.
Tesfaye said the Horn of Africa nations would have to be rehabilitated from the devastation of internal wars, the collapse of their health care systems and economies, and the displacement of millions of people.
“This is an immense task. It’s a big task.”
