China unlikely to be Ukraine’s security guarantor, diplomatic observers say
- Ukraine has urged China to do more to halt the war, and President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for it to join the security guarantors for any deal with Russia
- But experts doubt that Beijing would give a guarantee, and question whether such an assurance would be meaningful
China is not likely to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine, diplomatic observers said after a telephone conversation between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart.
Kuleba said Ukraine would maintain communication with China and hoped that China would play a role in a ceasefire, the Chinese ministry added.
Talks between the two foreign ministers came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved the forming of a delegation, to be headed by Ukrainian politician David Arakhamia, for talks with Russia about security guarantees.
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On Monday, Arakhamia said Ukraine was negotiating with China through diplomatic channels, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported.
“The state of negotiations with China is probably less ready when compared with other countries helping us,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
“We maintain contact with them twice a day, but with China it is getting more and more difficult. I think China will eventually join.”
Andriy Yermak, a senior aide to Zelensky, said last month that Ukraine wanted China to play a more “noticeable role” in halting the war and being a future guarantor of Ukraine’s security.
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“We also expect China to contribute meaningfully to this new system of security for Ukraine and we also expect China to be one of the guarantors within the framework of this security system,” he said during a virtual press conference organised by London think tank Chatham House.
Zelensky told Fox News on Friday that Ukraine wanted China to be among the security guarantors for any deal with Russia.
But Shi Yinhong, an international affairs professor at Renmin University, said the request so far lacked clear definition.
“Western countries have so far refused to send troops to Ukraine over a month after the war broke out, so it is clear that they are not providing the so-called security guarantees,” he said.
“Why should China move first when the US and Nato have yet to commit themselves to becoming security guarantors?”
Even if China wished to be involved, it would need to assess whether it was capable of providing the assurances needed, Shi added.
“China has talked a lot about promoting peace talks, but it always insists it will work with the international community, and it seldom says what specific role it wants to play,” he said.
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In 1994, Beijing made a “security guarantee” to Ukraine, saying its “no first use” nuclear policy “applies to Ukraine”. In the 2013 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Ukraine, China reiterated its 1994 statement.
But Shi said joint assurances in 1994 by the United States, Russia and Britain, along with separate assurances by China and France, showed major powers had failed to foresee what would happen in Ukraine and were not serious about their commitments.
Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said the possibility of China being Ukraine’s security guarantor was a “non-starter”.
“What does ‘security guarantor’ mean, anyway? What guarantee could China give?” he said.
“Nato has been Ukraine’s de facto security guarantor, and its security guarantees led the country to its destruction. China will never agree to play such a role. At most, it might take part in a peacekeeping mission, provided this is backed by a UN resolution.”
The call between Wang and Kuleba took place amid growing international outrage against Russia over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
China has come under pressure from the US and others to take a tougher line against Russia’s invasion.
Beijing has not categorised the attack as an invasion, and instead has blamed Nato expansion for the crisis, saying the security of one nation should not come at the expense of others.
Wang reiterated his call for a balanced European security mechanism to be set up.
“The war will always end, and the key is how to overcome the pain and maintain the lasting security of Europe,” the ministry quoted him as saying.
“It is believed that the Ukrainian side has enough wisdom to independently make choices that conform to the fundamental interests of its own people.”
Kuleba said in a tweet that he was grateful to Wang for “solidarity with civilian victims” of Russia’s invasion, and that ending the war “serves the interests of peace, global food security and international trade”.
