Ukraine war: one possible casualty may be Beijing’s economic relationship with Kyiv

China, which is Ukraine’s leading business partner, may see a shift after its refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion

Ukraine, which before the war was sending about US$8 billion in goods to China, may be able to find other markets once exports resume, analysts say

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Published: 6:00am, 8 Apr 2022

A new metro line in Kyiv. A US$50 million revamp of a shipping port in Mariupol. A large wind farm on the Black Sea coast.

Since Ukraine signed on in 2017 to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a sweeping trade and investment plan to bolster China’s economic ties with the rest of the world – Chinese contractors and lenders have embarked on numerous ambitious infrastructure projects in the eastern European state.

Shelling has taken a heavy toll in the southern Ukraine city of Mariupol, raising uncertainty over the status of a China-sponsored US$50 million upgrade of the port. Photo: Reuters

Those projects are in keeping with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ambition for his nation to serve as a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese investment, as he told Chinese President Xi Jinping last year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now thrust that future into doubt, according to economists and BRI experts.

Not only has the conflict disrupted projects in Ukraine and threatened Russia’s role as a critical BRI artery, Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion – or even recognise the attack as an invasion – has frustrated Kyiv and led some in Ukraine to question whether Beijing should remain its primary economic partner.

“We believe that China, as one of the most potent global leaders, should play a more noticeable role in bringing this war to the end,” Andriy Yermak, head of Zelensky’s presidential office, said recently at a virtual event organised by Chatham House.