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As I see it | Why China will struggle to draw India away from US despite close stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine
- India’s balancing act between the US and Russia has not impacted its tilt towards Washington in the great power rivalry
- China has clearly underestimated India’s grievances with their protracted border stand-off
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has left India and China walking the diplomatic high wire, as the two Asian neighbours struggle to balance ties with both Moscow and Washington.
As Beijing sees it, New Delhi’s refusal to succumb to Western pressure to call out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression, alongside its dependence on Russian weapons, offer a golden opportunity to pull India away from Washington’s orbit.
But hopes that Beijing could leverage the Ukraine crisis to drive a wedge between India and the US and thus draw its South Asian neighbour closer appear to have been misplaced. Instead, there are signs that the paths for China and India are diverging more than ever, going by New Delhi’s recent interactions with both Beijing and Washington.
It is clear that Joe Biden is not happy with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over what the US president has called New Delhi’s “somewhat shaky” stance on Ukraine. But India’s balancing act between the US and Russia, increasingly an irritant for the West, has so far done little to prevent New Delhi from retaining its tilt towards Washington in the US-China great power rivalry.
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Virtual talks on Monday between Biden and Modi were described by US officials as “warm” and “candid”, with the Indian leader renewing his commitment to closer ties with Washington. And while Biden appeared to have made little progress in persuading Modi to change his mind on continuing to buy Russian oil and weapons, the Indian prime minister nonetheless expressed concerns about the “very worrying” situation in Ukraine.
Mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine, which was invaded by Russian forces 48 days ago, have also prompted India to delicately adjust its largely pro-Russia stance.
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In a departure from its repeated abstention votes in the United Nations on resolutions pertaining to Russia’s role in the Ukraine crisis, New Delhi has “unequivocally” condemned the killings uncovered in the city of Bucha and called for an independent investigation.
India’s move stood in sharp contrast with China’s, which has described the Bucha images as “very disturbing” while calling upon all sides to show restraint and avoid finger-pointing.
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