“In China’s assessment, it faces great risk with the situation in Afghanistan,” said Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University in China’s Gansu province. “That’s to say that China realises that there is political uncertainty.”

That uncertainty stems from whether the Taliban can hold on to power and gain international recognition as the lawful government of Afghanistan, he said, which added to the existing reluctance of Chinese companies to fund infrastructure projects due to security concerns and scepticism about economic returns.

03:03

‘We sleep outside’: growing desperation among Afghan quake victims as aid reaches remote area

‘We sleep outside’: growing desperation among Afghan quake victims as aid reaches remote area

Ensuring stability in China’s northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, which shares a narrow border with Afghanistan, is a top concern for Beijing when managing its ties with Kabul.

Beijing has long accused ETIM of promoting Uygur separatism in Xinjiang.

Wang has pressed the issue repeatedly in diplomatic meetings and dialogue, most recently on Monday, in a call with his Taliban counterpart.

“We believe that the Afghan side will take practical measures to resolutely combat all terrorist forces, including the ‘East Turkestan Islamic Movement’, and strengthen the security protection of Chinese citizens and institutions in Afghanistan,” he was quoted as saying by his ministry.

But repeated bombings in Afghanistan claimed by Islamic State Khorasan, an Isis affiliate that is hostile towards the Afghan Taliban because of sectarian differences, have raised questions over whether the Taliban is capable of maintaining security.

Biggest PLA warplanes deliver Chinese aid to quake-hit Afghanistan

How it handled the humanitarian crisis caused by the June 22 earthquake only added to the scepticism. With resources at public hospitals and clinics already stretched because of the freezing of Afghanistan’s foreign reserves, poor communications and a patchy road network meant it was difficult for aid to reach the poor, remote villages worst hit by the quake. Survivors were left to dig by hand as they searched for others stuck under rubble.

“The internal situation in Afghanistan is very complex and not everything should or can be managed by China,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, while adding that there had not been a threat to China’s national security directed, condoned or allowed by the Taliban since it took power.

The Taliban did not respond to a request for comment.

China, wary of the lessons learned by the United States and the Soviet Union, was not likely to place boots on the ground, said Stefanie Kam, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ political violence centre in Singapore.

But it was moving towards “constructive intervention”, where it would not refrain from shoring up its security presence in countries with Chinese nationals and investments, she said.

“Of course, it wants to signal on a political level as well about the superiority of its political system that does not necessarily require military interventions to bring about peace and development in Afghanistan, but through, perhaps, economic inducements or working through third-party channels like Pakistan.”

Fatima Airan, a researcher at the Biruni Institute, a think tank based in Kabul, said China had invested in few projects in Afghanistan, and with the Taliban in charge it had become even more reluctant to invest.

“For China, the market is not stable enough in Afghanistan because of the insecurity,” she said. “They will not take the risk to bring a large-scale investment project to Afghanistan because the situation is not clear in the long term and the return is not clear as well.”

“There are more resistance groups fighting the Taliban, and also because of the recent attacks on [Chinese] civilians in Pakistan,” she said. “I think that was also a warning for China, to be more cautious in Afghanistan as well.”

01:41

3 Chinese staff of Confucius Institute killed in Karachi bomb attack

3 Chinese staff of Confucius Institute killed in Karachi bomb attack

The Taliban, unlike the Afghan government it replaced, is not trained to counter terrorism, Airan said.

Frozen foreign assets have hindered the Taliban’s ability to rebuild the country, but Zhu said that even if the assets were unfrozen and returned to Afghanistan in full, it would not transform the country.

“It will help, but won’t help fundamentally because the hole that is Afghanistan, this black hole, this pit, is too big,” he said.

The lack of industry, modern economic order, transport infrastructure and basic education added to ideological extremism and security concerns to impede efforts to overcome poverty and underdevelopment, Zhu said.

Kam said the Taliban had not been able to demonstrate that it could provide the basic goods and provisions needed by the Afghan people. “And the fact that militants continue to operate … will continue to be a problem,” she said.

Beyond security concerns that have fuelled a lack of confidence in Afghanistan’s economic future under the Taliban, China has repeatedly called for the group to establish a more inclusive and moderate government.

Unlike Western governments, Beijing has not clearly criticised the Taliban for the curtailment of women’s rights. But Shi said it remained an issue blocking international recognition of the Taliban as Afghanistan’s lawful government.

“The way the Taliban treat women is probably much better than it was before they took control of the country, but it is still far from acceptable to Western governments and public opinion,” he said.

Airan said the issue “is going to bring a little pressure to the Taliban if they are not recognised by China or … Western countries”.

“That might probably change their perspective a bit,” she said.