Taiwan visit by Nancy Pelosi risks sparking US-PLA conflict, army watchers warn
- Chinese defence ministry says PLA will not ‘turn a blind eye’ to Pelosi’s visit, which it sees as a move to ‘support Taiwan independence’
- Today’s stronger PLA is much changed from the 1990s and Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, naval expert points out
Mentioning the issue for the first time, the Chinese defence ministry said the PLA sees Pelosi’s planned visit as a move to “support Taiwan independence” and would not “turn a blind eye” to it.
“As the No 3 leader of the US administration, if Pelosi insists on coming to Taiwan … it will inevitably cause extremely serious damage to ties between the Chinese and US governments, as well as the two militaries, leading to further escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said on Tuesday.
“The Chinese military will not turn a blind eye to it, and will respond by taking strong measures to thwart any external interference and ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist attempts, to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tan said.
Tan’s strong remarks echoed warnings from the Chinese foreign ministry last week, when spokesman Zhao Lijian said the US will “bear all consequences” and face “forceful measures” from Beijing if Pelosi persisted with her Taiwan tour.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie highlighted the risk of actual armed conflict.
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“The American military claimed they might send aircraft carriers to escort Pelosi if necessary, but today’s PLA owns two active aircraft carriers, it’s too risky for either side to deploy the giant ships to the waterway.”
A narrowing of Beijing’s military technology gap with the US has made the Chinese leadership more aggressive and less tolerant of the provocations and challenges thrown by the Americans, Ni Lexiong, professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said.
“Beijing has tremendous means to push Pelosi to give up her plan,” the political science expert said. “In terms of military options, for example, the PLA might announce a no-fly zone and restricted navigation zone for military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi’s aircraft to make a detour if she insists on visiting Taiwan.”
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said the PLA felt it had “not been respected” by Washington in the past few months despite flagging the risks posed by such a visit.
“The PLA is very angry because of the feeling of disrespect from their American counterparts after months of efforts to try to stop Pelosi’s Taiwan trip,” Zhou said.
Pelosi earlier cancelled plans for a visit in April after testing positive for Covid-19.
As Pelosi’s visit could coincide with the PLA’s anniversary on August 1, the Chinese military is likely to organise military drills near Taiwan at the time, with more warships and aircraft deployed, a military source said.
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“The PLA may mobilise a certain number of warships and aircraft to patrol both the Taiwan Strait and [Taiwan’s] eastern coasts, because the US military might arrange for Pelosi to land on the island on a warship departing from the American naval base in [Japan’s] Okinawa,” the source said on condition of anonymity.
Ni, however, said military might is always the last step, and Beijing would prefer to use diplomatic means to convince the US to have Pelosi cancel her tour.
“For example, Beijing could play the Russia card, by selling something the US doesn’t like, as China still refuses to follow international sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine,” Ni added.