Taiwan ‘will have to bear the wrath of Beijing’ if Nancy Pelosi goes ahead with visit, analysts say

US House speaker is reportedly planning to travel to the self-ruled island with a delegation next month, but it’s not confirmed

It is seen as creating a dilemma for Taipei, and Beijing is expected to respond with military pressure if Pelosi makes the trip

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Beijing has warned that the US will “bear all consequences” if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan. Photo: AFP

Published: 5:00pm, 28 Jul 2022Updated: 5:20pm, 28 Jul 2022

Taiwan will have to contend with the security and political impact if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi goes ahead with a visit to the island, according to analysts.

Pelosi is reportedly planning to travel to the self-ruled island next month, a prospect that has inflamed tensions between Beijing and Washington. The Democrat is second in line to the presidency and would be the most senior US politician to visit Taiwan since her predecessor Newt Gingrich went to the island in 1997.

The lawmaker plans to take a delegation to Taiwan, and they will also visit Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia in August, the Financial Times reported last week. She will also spend time in Hawaii at the headquarters of the US Indo-Pacific Command.

While Pelosi has not confirmed the report, US President Joe Biden told reporters last week that the military thought it was “not a good idea” for her to visit. She had earlier postponed a planned trip in April after contracting Covid-19.

There has been debate in the United States over whether Pelosi should make the trip – some lawmakers have urged her to proceed – given Beijing’s warning that the US would “bear all consequences” and face “forceful measures” if it goes ahead.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has not renounced the use of force to take the island under its control. The US does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and Beijing has repeatedly warned Washington not to have official contact with Taipei or supply it with weapons.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry last week said it had not received any information about Pelosi’s planned visit. Analysts in Taipei say it has created a dilemma for the island.

“It would be extremely difficult for the government of President Tsai Ing-wen to decline Pelosi’s offer to visit, given [her position in US politics] and that she has long been known for her support for Taiwan,” said Wang Kung-yi, director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a think tank in Taipei.