Risk of accidental US-China conflict over Taiwan could leave Japan badly exposed
- Tensions are rising, with China threatening ‘forceful measures’ if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits the island next month
- Diplomatic analysts said Tokyo will be forced to side with Washington, but may find itself in a position it is not properly prepared to handle
Maintaining security is a common concern for Japan and South Korea, the two key US allies in the region, but Tokyo will bear the brunt of supporting the American military in the event of conflict, according to diplomatic observers.
“Japan has no option other than to take the US side once a contingency over the Taiwan Strait happens,” said Fumiko Sasaki, a specialist in international relations focusing on Asian and Japanese politics at Columbia University in New York.
“As an ally of the US, Japan’s preparation for the contingency over the Taiwan Strait needs to be coordinated with the US. But that should not be the primary preparation.”
Beijing considers self-ruled Taiwan to be a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it back into the fold.
Last week, the Chinese foreign ministry said the US will “bear all consequences” and face “forceful measures” if Pelosi visits the island.
