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‘Confident superpower or insecure?’ Beijing’s reaction if Pelosi goes to Taiwan may be telling
- Potential visit comes at a politically sensitive time, and President Xi Jinping will ‘want to appear in control’ of what is seen as a provocation, observer says
- While the situation is tense, it is not expected to turn into a military conflict and stability is seen as a priority for the party ahead of its congress
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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit may worsen the troubled US-China relationship, but observers say it is unlikely to change Beijing’s agenda ahead of a key leadership reshuffle.
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The tense situation across the Taiwan Strait is not expected to turn into a military conflict, or have an impact on President Xi Jinping’s plan to secure a third term in power when the ruling Communist Party holds its twice-a-decade congress in autumn.
Nationalist sentiment is surging in mainland China and Beijing has warned of “forceful measures” if Pelosi goes ahead with the trip. Observers say its reaction if she does visit will be an indication of just how confident Xi’s China is.
Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island – which Beijing claims and has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary – will reportedly be part of her Asian tour that began in Singapore on Monday. But she has yet to confirm if Taiwan is on the itinerary, which also includes Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
Taiwan is a hypersensitive issue for Beijing – especially US arms sales and increasing official exchanges with Washington, which does not have formal ties with Taipei.
In a phone call last week, Xi told President Joe Biden that the US should abide by the one-China principle and that “those who play with fire will perish by it”. Biden tried to reassure Xi that US policy on Taiwan had not changed, but said Washington opposed unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the strait.
If Pelosi visits Taiwan, she will be the highest-ranking US official to do so in 25 years. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said it would cross Beijing’s “red line”, while the military held live-fire drills over the weekend off the coast of Fujian province – directly opposite Taiwan.
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