Explainer | Why so much talk about Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and what does it mean for US-China relations?
- Military experts warn that Pelosi’s trip could risk actual armed conflict
- Pelosi would be accompanied by military support, according to Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Why is the visit controversial?
As speaker of the United States’ House of Representatives, Pelosi is the second in line to the presidency after the vice-president. While she does not have any direct responsibility for foreign affairs, if she visits the island Pelosi will be the highest ranking US politician to do so since a Republican predecessor, Newt Gingrich, made the trip in 1997.
Under the one-China principle, Beijing regards the self-ruled island as a breakaway province, and vows to take it back by force if “peaceful reunification” fails. Beijing views any official contact between Taiwan and a foreign government as a violation of its sovereignty.
Sensitivities have heightened amid the superpowers’ rocky relationship. Pelosi’s trip is seen by mainland China as a provocation and a move to support Taiwan independence.
Did Biden tell Pelosi to cancel her trip?
PLA’s 95th year festivities upstaged by Pelosi’s likely Taiwan plans
Observers said that while that may be technically true, to assert that the president had no influence over Pelosi’s choice was an excuse. “Biden will certainly claim that Pelosi is beyond his control, but then who will be responsible for China-US relations?” said Zhu Feng, director of Nanjing University’s institute of international studies.
What would happen if Pelosi visited Taiwan?
Military experts have warned that Pelosi’s trip could risk actual armed conflict, with Beijing’s leadership being more aggressive and less tolerant of provocations and challenges from the Americans, given the narrowing of Beijing’s military technology gap with the US.
“Beijing has tremendous means to push Pelosi to give up her plan,” said Ni Lexiong, professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. He suggested the People’s Liberation Army could “announce a no-fly zone and restricted navigation zone for military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi’s aircraft to make a detour if she insists on visiting Taiwan”.
What US-China row over Pelosi and Taiwan means for Asian region
Beijing’s defence ministry said the PLA viewed Pelosi’s planned visit as a move to “support Taiwan independence” and would not “turn a blind eye” to it.
Biden has said publicly three times as president that the US would defend the island if mainland China attacked – a position that is in line with the Taiwan Relations Act.
Are the Democrats and Republicans on the same page?
The US’ policies on China, including provision of military support for the island, are largely a bipartisan issue for Democrats and Republicans.
Mike Pompeo, secretary of state in former US president Donald Trump’s administration, tweeted last Monday that he would join Pelosi on her visit, following his personal visit in March, paid for by an undisclosed Taiwanese body.
Gingrich, who visited in 1997, also supported Pelosi’s planned trip in a tweet. “What is the Pentagon thinking when it publicly warns against Speaker Pelosi going to Taiwan?” he said. “Timidity is dangerous.”