What next for China’s 16+1 trade group after Baltic countries exit over Russia and Taiwan?

Estonia and Latvia’s ambivalence towards economic forum transformed into alarm as Moscow-Beijing ties warmed and live-fire drills encircled Taiwan

Yet departures did not directly criticise China, leaving door open for each country to pursue cooperation bilaterally and at an EU-China level

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Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu cites China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as contributing to his country’s decision to exit the trade group. Photo: Lehtikuva/AFP

Published: 3:25am, 20 Aug 2022Updated: 10:19pm, 20 Aug 2022

When asked a year ago if they would follow neighbouring Lithuania out of China’s 16+1 economic forum of central and eastern European countries, Estonian and Latvian officials professed ambivalence.

They felt the trade group had delivered only minor economic benefits that were being overshadowed by what they viewed as Beijing’s worrying human rights record.

But there was no rush for the door. Having watched the Chinese backlash against Vilnius – a sweeping block on most Lithuanian exports, the expulsion of its ambassador, and the downgrading of its embassy in Beijing – the two remaining Baltic states saw no point in conspicuously leaving, officials said privately at the time.

Instead they would steer clear of formal meetings, believing there was little to gain from rocking the boat further with a noisy exit.

Lithuania was the first Baltic country to quit the trade group and has angered China by bolstering ties with Taiwan. Photo: AFP

More than a year on, their decision last week to publicly bail on the decade-old group underscored how much that calculus had changed, driven by geopolitical events and emblematic of a broader shift in attitudes towards China.

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