EU faces growing pressure to stress test for attack on Taiwan by mainland China

Spiralling tensions over Taiwan would ‘dwarf all other geopolitical crises’, former WTO chief says

European diplomats say fears of leaks to Beijing make it difficult to hold meetings on Taiwan

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Flags fly outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, June 17. Since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU members have been urged to make contingency plans for an invasion of Taiwan by mainland China. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:23pm, 15 Sep 2022Updated: 11:05pm, 15 Sep 2022

The European Union is under mounting pressure to begin modelling for the worst-case scenario in Taiwan – a mainland Chinese attack that would upend global supply chains.

Lawmakers, ex-officials and the United States are all prodding the bloc to take decisive action, including to dramatically expand ties with Taiwan, rapidly diversify value chains, and evaluate the economic impact of sanctioning China, but Brussels remains reluctant to weigh in substantially.

Pascal Lamy, a two-term World Trade Organization director general and once the EU’s top trade official, said spiralling tensions over Taiwan would dwarf all other geopolitical crises and “dominate international life for the times to come”.

“Nothing in the geoeconomics or geopolitics of the 20 years to come will be disconnected from this Taiwan looming issue,” said Lamy, who urged the EU to begin stress-testing for all eventualities.

“I think the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Taiwan issues are not disconnected in many ways,” he told the Post in an interview in Brussels.

“In this case, we have to be prepared for what we will do. I think the US will embark on very severe sanctions vis-a-vis China. Will we adopt the same stance? Are we prepared to do that? Have we examined the necessary scenarios?”