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Flags fly outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, June 17. Since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU members have been urged to make contingency plans for an invasion of Taiwan by mainland China. Photo: Reuters

EU faces growing pressure to stress test for attack on Taiwan by mainland China

  • Spiralling tensions over Taiwan would ‘dwarf all other geopolitical crises’, former WTO chief says
  • European diplomats say fears of leaks to Beijing make it difficult to hold meetings on Taiwan

The European Union is under mounting pressure to begin modelling for the worst-case scenario in Taiwan – a mainland Chinese attack that would upend global supply chains.

Lawmakers, ex-officials and the United States are all prodding the bloc to take decisive action, including to dramatically expand ties with Taiwan, rapidly diversify value chains, and evaluate the economic impact of sanctioning China, but Brussels remains reluctant to weigh in substantially.

Pascal Lamy, a two-term World Trade Organization director general and once the EU’s top trade official, said spiralling tensions over Taiwan would dwarf all other geopolitical crises and “dominate international life for the times to come”.

“Nothing in the geoeconomics or geopolitics of the 20 years to come will be disconnected from this Taiwan looming issue,” said Lamy, who urged the EU to begin stress-testing for all eventualities.

“I think the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Taiwan issues are not disconnected in many ways,” he told the Post in an interview in Brussels.

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“In this case, we have to be prepared for what we will do. I think the US will embark on very severe sanctions vis-a-vis China. Will we adopt the same stance? Are we prepared to do that? Have we examined the necessary scenarios?”

The pressure from Washington has been mounting for months.

Reuters reported this week that lobbying escalated after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the third in line to the presidency, visited Taiwan in August. Beijing responded with unprecedented live military drills, firing missiles over the island.

02:48

China condemns Taiwan visit by EU delegation and travel plans by US House Speaker Pelosi

China condemns Taiwan visit by EU delegation and travel plans by US House Speaker Pelosi
In April, sources said the US had been leaning on Europe since the first weeks of the Russian invasion to view the sanctions on Russia as a “dry run” for China.

But Brussels appears determined to keep its counsel in public, and faces significant wrangling to even get Taiwan on the back room agenda.

“It is in no one’s interest to have another major conflict in today’s unstable world. And let us also be realistic: the tensions in the strait will not go away,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, told the European Parliament this week.

“I know that this will not make all of you 100 per cent happy. Some of you would like me to take a tougher stance. We have to be aware that this is a difficult situation in which we have to keep both things at the same time. This is a balanced position.”

Behind the scenes, diplomats said there was a paralysing fear of leaks that made it difficult to hold in-depth meetings on Taiwan. Some member states were reluctant to put anything in writing for fear that it would make its way to Beijing.

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Politico reported this week that the EU’s top intelligence official, José Casimiro Morgado, cancelled a secret trip to Taipei after Beijing learned of it in advance.

Meanwhile, diplomatic sources told the Post that EU foreign service staff were given a dressing down by Beijing ahead of a trip to Taipei in August by Nicola Beer, a European Parliament vice-president. However, the diplomats did not even know at that point that Beer was travelling.

An EU spokesman said it would “not comment on our interactions with the host authorities, especially not those at diplomatic level”.

EU lawmakers on Thursday adopted a resolution calling for the EU to forge closer ties with Taiwan.

“The US warned us over Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine and we refused to see reality. We must not make the same mistake again,” said Hilde Vautmans, a Belgian Member of the European Parliament, who urged Brussels to “work on a contingency plan together with like-minded partners in the event of an escalation”.

02:25

China’s Xi Jinping 'paying close attention' to Russia-Ukraine crisis

China’s Xi Jinping 'paying close attention' to Russia-Ukraine crisis

The parliament repeated a long-standing demand for a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan, which some say would further legitimise Taiwan and bring it into the international community.

However officials and diplomats told the Post there were no plans to do that. The official line is that there is no economic imperative for such a deal, since investment flows freely between the EU and Taiwan.

But there is fear among member states of thwarting even the remote chances of thawing out its investment agreement with China, which is on hold until Beijing removes sanctions on lawmakers.
Diplomats point out that their national companies do not ask for a deal with Taiwan, but do ask for one with China.

Furthermore, officials foresee a highly embarrassing scenario in which the ground is laid for an investment pact with Taiwan, only for it to be shot down by EU member states, not all of whom would support such a move.

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A Western European diplomat focused on Asia pointed to Hungary as a traditional opponent of anything seeking to oppose China.

However, they said Cyprus was also reluctant to reach out to Taiwan, given that Türkiye proposed a “Taiwanese model” for dealing with northern Cyprus, a territory claimed by both Nicosia and Ankara.

Nonetheless, lawmakers vowed to keep up the pressure.

“The EU has to deliberately make the choice of supporting democracy,” French lawmaker Marie-Pierre Vedrenne said.

“For seven years, we’ve been asking to start negotiations in bilateral investment agreements with Taiwan. We have to move forward.”

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