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Kawala Xie

The suspected sabotage of two major Russian gas pipelines to Europe is likely to have less impact on China compared with Europe despite its global implications, analysts have said.
A series of leaks were detected in both North Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 this week.
Neither was currently supplying gas. Russia shut down Nord Stream 1 in August, while Nord Stream 2 never came on stream as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin has said the act appeared to be “state-sponsored terrorism” and also suggested the US was trying to benefit from increased gas sales if Russian supplies to Europe were cut.
Ukraine says 23 killed in Russian missile strike on civilian convoy
But the US said this accusation was the latest example of Russia’s “long history of spreading disinformation”; while a number of European governments have said the leaks were a result of deliberate sabotage without directly naming those they think are responsible.
The war in Ukraine has already had a major impact on the global energy market – particularly in Europe, which has been scrambling to find alternative supplies due to its previous dependence on Russia.
Gao Zhikai, vice-president of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank, said the impact on China would be limited.
“[China’s] natural gas contracts are usually long-term, 10 to 20 years, so natural gas price fluctuations at a specific moment have no major impact on the ongoing natural gas contracts,” he said.


But the impacts on Europe of losing supplies from the Nord Stream pipeline were severe and lasting, he said, as no one country or enterprise could make up the supply that the Nord Stream would be able to provide in a short time.
“Undoubtedly, the impact of [the gas leaks] is huge, including on prices, affordability, and supply chains for related enterprises in Europe,” said Ding Chun, director of the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University.
He added that the global rise in energy prices would have some impact on China, but not as much as it would have in Europe.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the leaks would not have much impact on Europe’s “energy resilience”, but many are afraid the situation could worsen as winter approaches.
Hundreds of children from Ukraine stranded in Russian camps
Europe has been actively seeking alternative supplies of LNG, including from China.
Sinopec, the state-owned oil and gas company alone resold 3.15 million tonnes of LNG to Europe this year, Nikkei Asia reported, citing Chinese media reports.
Wang Yiwei, a Renmin University professor specialising in European studies, said Russia was likely to look to Asia for buyers of gas it could no longer sell to Europe, adding that it could help internationalise the Chinese yuan as an alternative to the US dollar.


Wang also said the Nord Stream leaks would trigger global concerns about the safety of major infrastructure.
“[Europe] will spend more and more funding to ensure the safety of the pipes. Just diversifying supplies [of gas] will not solve the problem.”


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Ukraine war

What impact will Nord Stream gas pipe sabotage have on China compared with Europe?

A security guard walks in front of the landfall facility of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 in Lubmin, Germany, on September 19. Photo: Reuters

Fourth leak detected after ‘sabotage’ of Nord Stream pipelines in Baltic Sea

A large disturbance off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm on Tuesday.  On Thursday a fourth leak on the Nord Stream pipelines was reported off southern Sweden. Photo: AP

A reading from a seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm shows two spikes earlier this week. Photo: German Centre for Georesearch

Explosions registered near undersea Nord Stream gas leaks, seismologists say

Gas bubbles from the Nord Stream 2 leak reaching the surface of the Baltic Sea near Bornholm, Denmark. Photo: Reuters

Unused pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic gas pipeline are stored onsite at the Port of Mukran. Photo: dpa

Russia halts Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline reopening, stoking rationing and recession fears in Europe

The landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany. File photo: Reuters

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China

Diplomacy


Chinese observers say the country is less likely to be affected than Europe, which was heavily dependent on Russia before the invasion of Ukraine
The war has already had a major impact on the global energy market, and Russia has already turned to Asia for buyers for its gas



Chinese observers say the country is less likely to be affected than Europe, which was heavily dependent on Russia before the invasion of Ukraine.


Ukraine

China energy security

Energy