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A senior Chinese military strategist says last year’s sailing of the USS John Paul Jones into waters claimed by India was an example of how the US is challenging Indian rights and interests. Photo: US Navy

US, not China, ‘real challenger’ to New Delhi’s Indian Ocean interests

  • ‘More common interests than differences’ between the Asian neighbours, Chinese military strategist tells King’s College seminar
  • The two sides ‘should view each other’s development with open minds in the advent of an Asian century’
The United States, not China, is the real challenger to India’s rights and interests in the Indian Ocean, according to a Chinese military strategist, who called on the Asian neighbours to better manage their differences and stabilise ties.

Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, pointed to last year’s sailing of the USS John Paul Jones guided missile destroyer into waters claimed by India as its exclusive economic zone.

Zhou Bo, a former PLA officer and defence ministry official, says relations between India and China could suffer dire consequences if mismanaged. Photo: Minnie Chan

“The US Navy’s Seventh Fleet issued a written statement saying it did so because the US would challenge India’s ‘excessive maritime claims’, which was met with an Indian backlash,” said Zhou, a retired senior colonel and former director of the Chinese defence ministry’s office for international cooperation.

“India’s exclusive economic zone covers one-thirtieth of the Indian Ocean. In other words, the United States’ claim to challenge India means that, at least in the eyes of Americans, a thirtieth of the Indian Ocean is not free and open because of India.”

Speaking at an online seminar organised by the King’s College London and the Centre for Policy Research, an Indian think tank, in late September, Zhou warned that China-India relations could suffer dire consequence if mismanaged.

“If left to fate, such an attitude is not only irresponsible but can also push China-India relations in a deleterious direction.”

The 2020 Himalayan border dispute – which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers – had shown that past confidence-building measures between the two countries had worked to an extent, Zhou said.

“While [it was] extremely unfortunate, the two modern militaries actually fought in Stone Age fashion, with stones and clubs. This meant they knew they should not shoot at each other under any circumstances.”

New Delhi should not see Beijing as a challenger to its interests in the Indian Ocean, despite the dispute in the Himalayas that “cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future”, he said.

But Zhou said India must recognise that China’s naval activities in the Indian Ocean would inevitably become more frequent.

“To safeguard China’s growing interests in the Indian Ocean and maintain the security of strategic sea lanes, the Chinese navy must maintain or even strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean,” he said.

“It is only a matter of time before a Chinese carrier strike group appears in the Indian Ocean.”

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Chinese research ship docks at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port amid heightened regional tensions

Chinese research ship docks at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port amid heightened regional tensions

Zhou warned that “friction and even conflict between the two sides is possible if [New Delhi] regards the Indian Ocean as the ‘Great Ocean for Hindus’ or India as a ‘net security provider’ for the Indian Ocean”.

Zhou also commented on the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy and said India had so far “resisted the temptation to turn the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) into an anti-China club”.

In Zhou’s view, the grouping – made up of the US, Australia, India and Japan – is unlikely to evolve into an “Asian Nato”, with only one military exercise – the Malabar drills – currently to its name.

“The Quad is actually heading in many other directions, such as infrastructure development, climate change, and the distribution of vaccines to Southeast Asian countries.”

China-India relations remain chilly amid Jaishankar’s diplomatic barrage at UN

Zhou urged India to understand that it shared more common interests with China than differences and said the two sides should view each other’s development with open minds in the advent of an Asian century.

“In the foreseeable future, the international order will be chaotic and multipolar. In Europe, it is uncertain how long the Russo-Ukrainian war will last. However, there will definitely be another Cold War following that, because the security of Europe is ultimately a question of how Russia and Nato intend to coexist,” he said.

“In Asia, the American Indo-Pacific strategy clearly aims to contain China, and China has no high hopes that China-US relations will improve drastically.”

Quad leaders vow to oppose all attempts to ‘change status quo by force’

According to India’s former ambassador to Denmark Yogesh Gupta, the main obstacle between Beijing and New Delhi is their lack of mutual trust.

Gupta, a specialist in China-India relations, said India held its own positions regarding issues such as freedom of navigation and countries’ exclusive economic zones.

“India has never objected to the peaceful activities of foreign navies in the Indian Ocean, but Chinese ships have been sneaking too close to Indian territorial waters near the Andaman Islands or at Sri Lankan ports, ostensibly for intelligence collection and other injurious activities,” he said.

‘We’re ready to curb you’: India sets its foreign policy sights on China

Gupta agreed with Zhou’s assessment that the Quad was not a military alliance and said the group’s future orientation would largely depend on the growth of China’s “aggressive and hostile activities in the region”.

Bilateral ties would improve only when the PLA disengaged and withdrew its troops from disputed border areas, he said.

“There can be no normalcy in the China-India relationship unless China … becomes more sensitive to India’s interests. India does not see its relations with China from the prism of its relations with a third country and expects China to do likewise.”

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