“[Beijing hopes] the US will work with China to find the right way for our two countries to get along,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Wednesday, while declining to comment on the midterm elections as they were the “internal affairs” of the US.

US’ hard line on China likely to hold whoever wins midterm elections: analysts

Lu Xiang, a US-China expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, said if McCarthy was to visit Taiwan as House speaker, he should expect Beijing to give an even stronger response in all respects – both diplomatic and military.

“China’s reaction will be stronger than the time when Pelosi went. This cannot be a repeated move made by a House speaker,” Lu said.

However, the next US presidential elections are likely to take precedence, he added.

“There is no doubt that McCarthy is personally hostile towards China. But I think the main goal of the Republicans in the next two years is to pave the way for the presidential election in 2024, so that will be prioritised in determining what moves McCarthy chooses to make.”

02:46

Mainland China launches largest military drill in the Taiwan Strait after Pelosi’s visit

Mainland China launches largest military drill in the Taiwan Strait after Pelosi’s visit

Self-governed Taiwan remains the hot-button issue for China-US relations, as they continue to spiral downhill over matters ranging from tech rivalry to controversy over the origins and handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not renounced the use of force to achieve reunification, is opposed to other nations making formal contact with the government in Taipei.

Like most countries, the US does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. But while Washington does not recognise Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over the self-governed island, it “acknowledges” that the claim exists.

US needs to ‘act with sincerity’ to restart China defence talks, analysts say

Ren Xiao, a professor of international politics at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said it was too early to predict McCarthy’s moves on China as future speaker, but new channels of communication should be built.

“Right now we can only wait and see, since the new Congress will not be inaugurated until January,” said Ren, who is currently at Stanford University as a visiting scholar.

“[China] can first establish contact with him or his staff, and try to build a working relationship,” he said.

Taiwanese observer Yen Chen-shen, a research fellow at the National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations in Taipei, noted that McCarthy is known for his support for US military assistance to the island.

“There is a big chance McCarthy will visit Taiwan, as he has said he would do if he became the new House speaker. But to reduce the political sensitivity [of such a visit], he is likely to plan his Taiwan trip before assuming the speakership in early 2023,” Yen said.

As for whether Beijing would stage another round of large-scale live-fire drills targeting Taiwan as it did just after Pelosi visited Taipei, Yen said that depended on the timing of McCarthy’s visit and how confrontational US-China relations were at the time.

Hung Yan-nan, professor of China studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei, believes major changes are unlikely in the US Congress’ favourable position towards Taiwan, with almost all Taiwan-friendly members from both the House and Senate being re-elected.

“The Republicans will have little doubt about [US President Joe] Biden’s cross-strait policies. It is domestic policies that they disagree on with Biden,” he said.

Additional reporting by Lawrence Chung